Posted at 27 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Feb) 58.4 54.4 previous
•New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Feb) 45.1% 45.8% previous
•Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q4) 0.2% 1.1% previous
•Australia Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) -0.8% 1.3% previous
•Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) -0.2% 0.6% 1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:55 German Unemployment Change (Feb) 11K previous
•08:55 German Unemployment Rate (Feb) 6.2% previous
•08:55 German Unemployment (Feb) 2.880M previous
•08:55 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Feb) 2.993M previous
•09:00 Italian Business Confidence (Feb) 87.0 forecast, 86.8 previous
•09:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Feb) 98.4 forecast, 98.2 previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jan) 3.8% forecast, 3.5% previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Jan) 16,726.4B previous
•09:00 EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jan) 1.5% previous
•09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jan) 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Feb) 96.0 95.2 previous
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Feb) -0.94 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Feb) -13.6 forecast, -14.2 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb) 20.2 previous
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Feb) 8.7 previous
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Feb) 6.8 forecast, 6.6 previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Feb) -12.0 forecast, -12.9 previous
•10:30 Italian 10-Years BTP Auction 3.60% previous
•10:30 Italian 5-Years BTP Auction 2.95% previous
•10:30 Belgium CPI (YoY) (Feb) 4.08% previous
•10:30 Belgium CPI (MoM) (Feb) 1.39% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar as traders adopted a cautious stance following President Trump's announcement on Wednesday of a potential 25% "reciprocal" tariff on European cars and other goods. Trump also suggested that tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could be implemented on April 2, pushing back the original March 4 deadline. In response, a European Commission spokesperson stated that the EU would react firmly and immediately against any unfair trade barriers, including tariffs on legally compliant policies. The euro fell 0.17% to $1.0467 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0528(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0551(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0455(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0356(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was little changed on Thursday as investors awaited a key inflation report to assess the Federal Reserve's policy path. Markets will next look to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due on Friday.The consensus forecast was for a PCE monthly index of 0.3%, unchanged from December 2024, according to poll. Market participants also focused on Trump's Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Trump said Volodymyr Zelenskiy would visit Washington on Friday to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals, while the Ukrainian leader said the success of the deal would hinge on those talks and continued U.S. aid. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2735(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2593(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Thursday as uncertainty over Trump’s changing tariffs approach boosted greenback. On Wednesday, Trump introduced the idea of a 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and other goods, but also suggested a potential one-month delay on the planned heavy tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada.On the data front, Australian business investment unexpectedly declined in the December quarter, with a slowdown in mining and construction offsetting growth in data centers, pointing to a slight drag on economic growth. At GMT 05:16 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.29% to $0.6287.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6331(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6355(Feb 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6255(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6212(Lower BB).
USD/JPY:The dollar rose slightly against the yen on Thursday, but gains were capped as President Trump's latest comments on trade policy fueled market uncertainty. On Wednesday, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on the EU but also hinted at a possible one-month delay on tariffs for Mexico and Canada. Japan's top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, stated on Wednesday that the recent yen appreciation aligned with positive economic data, reflecting Tokyo's belief that the yen's rebound is consistent with an improving economy, which could support potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.32(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.71(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.52(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.96(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Thursday, with tech shares across the region showing limited movement despite strong earnings from U.S. chipmaker and AI leader Nvidia.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.30 % , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.73%,Hang Seng was down by 0.43%
Commodities Recap
Gold dipped on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, as investors awaited a crucial inflation report to gauge the Federal Reserve's next steps on monetary policy.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,897.91 an ounce by 0645 GMT.U.S. gold futures also lost 0.7% to $2,909.30
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous two sessions, as supply concerns resurfaced following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to reverse a license granted to Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
Brent crude oil futures was up 2 cent at $72.55 a barrel by 0731 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were up 6 cents at $68.68 per barrel.