Posted at 25 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) -2.8%, -7.1% previous
•German Car Registration (MoM) (Jan) -7.6% ,-8.1% previous
•French Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) -6.2% 1.5% previous
•French Car Registration (MoM) (Jan) -37.6%, 37.8% previous
•Finnish Unemployment Rate (Jan) 8.9% ,8.9% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 6.3% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 4.2% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%forecast, 0.3% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (Dec) 433.4 previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 0.4% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Dec) -0.1% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec) 4.4% forecast, 4.3% previous
•15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) 102.7 forecast, 104.1 previous
•15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Feb) -3 forecast, -4 previous
•15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Feb) -9 previous
•15:00 US Richmond Services Index (Feb) 4 previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Feb) 5.7 previous
•15:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Feb) 7.4 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday as markets focused on ongoing coalition talks in Germany. Merz's conservative bloc, which won Sunday's national election, is aiming to quickly form a government, but faces difficulties due to potential resistance from far-right and far-left parties. Merz is seeking an alliance with Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), who came in third, after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a historic second place. However, the push for an SPD coalition follows a contentious campaign marked by deep policy divisions, especially on migration. The clock is ticking for Germany’s new government, as businesses push for support to remain globally competitive, while the country faces divisions over migration and must manage strained relations with the Trump administration, Russia, and China. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0506(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0445(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0374(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hovered near two-month high on Tuesday as markets looked to remarks from the Bank of England's chief economist. Traders were closely monitoring Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, who was scheduled to make closing remarks at a conference around 1400 GMT, hoping for any insights into future policy moves. Traders were closely monitoring Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, who was scheduled to make closing remarks at a conference around 1400 GMT, hoping for any insights into future policy moves. The Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut and accompanying economic forecasts have prompted a flurry of conflicting views about where monetary policy is heading, raising the question of how BoE-watchers should read the committee’s actions in these uncertain times. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2484(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped slight against greenback on Tuesday, amid growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are on time and on schedule despite efforts to strengthen border security and stop fentanyl flow, ahead of the March 4 deadline. Australia’s January CPI release on Wednesday will shape Reserve Bank of Australia policy expectations further, after its cautious rate cut last week. Australia's quarterly capital expenditure (capex) report on Thursday will shed light on business investment in the country. At GMT 12:43 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.12% to $0.6341.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6409(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6434(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6320(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6227(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in tight range against the yen on Tuesday, as investors shifted their focus to an important U.S. inflation report set for later in the week. The inflation reading, due on Friday, comes ahead of several speeches from Federal Reserve officials throughout the week, starting Tuesday. Weak U.S. data, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and manufacturing and services sector surveys, have dampened market confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy. Coupled with Trump's looming tariffs and uncertainty over federal government layoffs, these factors have led investors to expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points this year, up from the 40 basis points anticipated just a week ago.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.47(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.33(Dec 4th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.52 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday, with gains in defense stocks offsetting losses in technology shares, which were pressured by concerns over U.S. chip restrictions on China.
At GMT (12:50) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained near an all-time high on Tuesday, fueled by concerns over a potential trade war and instability caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, prompting increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,938.63 an ounce by 1125 GMT, after reaching $2,956.15 on Monday — its eleventh record high this year.U.S. gold futures declined 0.3% to $2,953.30.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday, following a rise the previous day after new U.S. sanctions on Iran heightened concerns over potential supply tightness, while strong global refining margins continued to provide support.
Brent crude futures were down 5 cents to $74.73 a barrel by 1046 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 2 cents to $70.72 a barrel.