Posted at 25 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY) 3.1%, 2.9% forecast, 3.0% previous
• German GDP (YoY) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
• German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jan) 85.0 previous
•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb) -21 forecast, -24 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• German Buba Mauderer Speaks
• German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained on the defensive on Tuesday as markets eye Germany coalition talks. Merz's conservatives aim to quickly form a government after winning Sunday's national election, but face challenging coalition talks and potential obstruction from far-right and far-left parties. His conservative bloc seeks to ally with Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), who placed third, after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a historic second. However, Merz's push for an SPD alliance follows a contentious campaign that exposed significant policy rifts, particularly over migration. Time is critical for Europe's largest economy, as German businesses seek support to stay competitive globally, society remains divided over migration, and the new government must navigate tensions with the confrontational Trump administration, a hostile Russia, and an assertive China. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0506(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0445(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0374(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed on Tuesday as investors focus turned to BoE Chief Economist Pill's speech and US Consumer Confidence data for further direction. Investors will watch Friday's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.The Fed is likely to wait until next quarter before cutting rates again, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who previously expected a March cut.Also, on the radar are speeches from Bank of England and U.S. central bank officials this week, who are expected to reinforce a cautious stance on further rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2484(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday but gain were limited on concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are on time and on schedule despite efforts to strengthen border security and stop fentanyl flow, ahead of the March 4 deadline. Australia’s January CPI release on Wednesday will shape Reserve Bank of Australia policy expectations further, after its cautious rate cut last week. Australia's quarterly capital expenditure (capex) report on Thursday will shed light on business investment in the country. At GMT 07:49 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.09% to $0.6376.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6409(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6434(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6350(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6330(Feb 20th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen on Tuesday as attention turned to a key U.S. inflation report later this week. Investors will get a reading on U.S. inflation on Friday, while a slew of Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak this week, beginning on Tuesday.A slew of weak U.S. data over recent days including retail sales, consumer confidence and surveys on the manufacturing and services sectors have eroded market confidence about the exceptionalism of the U.S. economy, taking some shine out of the U.S. dollar.Combined with Trump's incoming tariffs and the uncertainty over a barrage of federal government layoffs, investors see the Federal Reserve on track to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, up from 40 bps just last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.51(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.43(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.72 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares slid on Tuesday amid concerns over U.S. investment curbs on China.
Jappan’s Nikkei was down 1.44% , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.57%,Hang Seng was down by 1.36%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose for a second day on Tuesday as new U.S. sanctions on Middle Eastern producer Iran raised concerns about potential supply tightness, while global refining margins remained strong.
Brent crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $75.16 a barrel by 0401 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $71.17 a barrel. Both contracts gained in Monday's session after a $2 drop last Friday.
Gold prices surged to a record high on Monday, fueled by safe-haven demand amid concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, with further support from inflows into the world's top gold-backed exchange-traded fund.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,947.48 an ounce as of 01:55 p.m. ET (1854 GMT), after hitting $2,956.15 earlier in the session, marking its eleventh record high in 2025. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $2,963.20.