Posted at 24 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss Employment Level (Q4) 5.534M, 5.528M forecast, 5.530M previous
• German Business Expectations (Feb) 85.4, 85.2 forecast, 84.3 previous
• German Current Assessment (Feb) 85.0, 86.5 forecast, 86.0 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb) 85.2, 85.9 forecast, 85.2 previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.9%, -1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jan) -0.3%, 0.4% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jan) 2.4%, 2.3% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 126.72, 126.71 forecast, 127.07 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jan) -0.7%, -0.7% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (Jan) , 0.15 previous
•13:30 Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ) -2.5% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.276% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.452% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.369% previous
•14:30 Belgium NBB Business Climate (Feb) -12.9 forecast, -13.6 previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Feb) 14.1 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 220% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro pared earlier gains on Monday after a brief rally following the election victory of Germany's conservatives as attention turned to how long coalition talks will take. Friedrich Merz was set to become Germany's next chancellor after his party emerged victorious in Sunday's election as expected, though he faces complex and lengthy coalition negotiations after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a historic second place in a fractured vote. Investors are now focused on how quickly Merz's party can form a coalition government and enact reforms to help revive a stagnant economy. The euro touched a one-month high of $1.0528 in Asian trade, but then gradually pared the gains and was last up 0.03% at $1.04635.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0506(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0445(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0374(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling remained near a two-month high on Monday as investors awaited speeches from Bank of England policymakers. This week, the UK has limited economic data, with the key event being the Monetary Policy Report Hearings on Tuesday. Bank of England officials Lombardelli, Ramsden, Dhingra, and Pill are scheduled to speak. Fitch Ratings will review the UK's credit rating on Friday. Later this week, the U.S. will release the second estimate of fourth-quarter growth and January's core PCE price index data. Sterling was broadly unchanged against the dollar at $1.2633, after touching a two-month high of $1.2690 earlier in the session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2484(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as weak U.S. macro data from late last week weighed on US dollar. Investors now await crucial inflation print from Australia due on Wednesday, for more clues on the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy stance.Investors are also closely monitoring the potential for a trade deal between Washington and Beijing after top officials held a phone call on Friday.At GMT 06:07 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.21% to $0.6369.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6409(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6434(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6350(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6330(Feb 20th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as attention turned to a key U.S. inflation report later this week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target, is set for release next week, with most economists expecting a smaller increase compared to the CPI. The yen surged last week, driven by stronger-than-expected inflation data in Japan, raising expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.51(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.43(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.72 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares traded mixed on Monday after Germany’s election result put centrist parties on track to form a coalition.
At GMT (13:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.00 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched up on Monday, trading near their record high, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. Investors are awaiting a key inflation report later this week to assess the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,947 an ounce as of 1211 GMT after scaling an all-time high of $2,954.69 last week.U.S. gold futures added 0.3% to $2,961.80.
Oil prices steadied on Monday as investors awaited clarity on Ukraine peace talks and considered the potential resumption of crude exports from northern Iraq.
Brent futures were down 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $74.37 barrel by 1302 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.26.