Posted at 24 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.4% 0.2% forecast -0.6% previous
•New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) 0.9%, 0.5% forecast 0.0% previous
•New Zealand Retail Sales YoY (Q4) 0.2% ,-2.5% previous
•New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 1.3%, 1.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 German Business Expectations (Feb) 85.2 forecast, 84.2 previous
•09:00 German Current Assessment (Feb) 86.5 forecast, 86.1 previous
•09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb) 85.9 forecast, 85.1 previous
•10:00 EU Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jan) 85.0 previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•10:00 EUR CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jan) 2.3% previous
•10:00 EUR CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 126.71 forecast, 127.07 previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan) 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jan) -0.7% forecast, 0.3% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders -34 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro firmed after Germany's opposition conservatives won the national election as expected. Friedrich Merz was set to become Germany's next chancellor after his party emerged victorious in Sunday's election, though he faces complex and lengthy coalition negotiations after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a historic second place in a fractured vote.Investors' focus is now on how quickly Merz's party can form a coalition government to bring about much-needed change to a frail economy. The euro was last trading 0.28% higher at $1.0484. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0506(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0445(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0374(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher as dollar fell on worries that U.S. tariffs may have a negative impact on the economy. Also adding to headwinds for the dollar were falling U.S. Treasury yields on heightened bets of more Fed cuts this year, amid growing concerns over the outlook for the world's largest economy. Friday showed U.S. business activity nearly stalled in February - the latest in a string of surveys to suggest that businesses and consumers were becoming increasingly rattled by the Trump administration's policies.Later this week, investors will get the second estimate of fourth quarter growth figures in the U.S. and January's core PCE price index data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2484(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as weak U.S. macro data from late last week impacted the US dollar.Looking Ahead, Australia's January CPI on Wednesday will influence RBA policy expectations after last week's rate cut, with Q4 CAPEX data due Thursday.Investors are also closely monitoring the potential for a trade deal between Washington and Beijing after top officials held a phone call on Friday.At GMT 06:07 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.31% to $0.6376.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6409(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6434(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6350(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6330(Feb 20th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as attention shifted to a key US inflation report later this week. The comparable Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target is due to be released next week, and most economists estimate it will show less of an increase than reflected in the CPI. The yen surged last week, boosted by stronger-than-expected inflation data in Japan, fueling expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. At GMT 13:08, The greenback was last trading up 0.07% to 149.44 against Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.51(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.43(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.72 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asia stocks slipped lower at the start of the week as traders avoided risky bets following weak economic data that triggered a selloff on Wall Street.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 1.06% , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.35 %,Hang Seng was down by 0.44%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices slipped in Asia on Monday, extending losses from last week, on the prospect of a resumption of exports from Kurdistan's oilfields, while investors awaited clarity on talks to resolve Russia's war on Ukraine.
Brent futures were down 1 cent, or 0.01%, at $74.42 barrel, as of 0731 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.28 a barrel.
Oil prices dropped on Monday, continuing last week's losses, amid hopes for resumed exports from Kurdistan's oilfields, while investors awaited updates on talks to resolve Russia's war on Ukraine.
Brent futures were down 1 cent, or 0.01%, at $74.42 barrel, as of 0731 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.28 a barrel.