Posted at 22 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 2.5%, 1.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.6, 51.3 forecast, 51.2 previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.4, 52.7 previous
• US S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 49.7, 53.0 forecast, 52.9 previous
• US Existing Home Sales (Jan) 4.08M, 4.13M forecast, 4.29M previous
• US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) -4.9%, 2.9% previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 4.3%, 4.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 3.5%, 3.3% forecast, 3.2% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb) 64.0, 67.3 previous
• US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 487, 481 previous
• US . Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 592, 588 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened after business activity surveys showed a sharp contraction in France, slight growth in Eurozone and only a mild recovery in Germany in early February. Eurozone business activity saw modest growth, with demand falling at a faster pace. The expansion in services barely offset the ongoing decline in manufacturing. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity showed slight improvement after contracting for the second consecutive year in 2024, driven by stable services and reduced pressure from manufacturing. Meanwhile, France, the bloc’s second-largest economy, experienced a much sharper-than-expected slump, with its PMI showing significant declines in new business and backlogs in the dominant services sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0506(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0445(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0374(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Friday as investors reacted to mixed economic data this week that left the Bank of England (BoE) uncertain about the UK's economic and monetary policy outlook.The pound touched two-month highs earlier in the day after data showed retail sales rose in January for the first time since August and consumer spending picked up much more sharply than expected despite a weak outlook for the economy. Meanwhile, a survey showed British businesses are cutting staff at the fastest pace in more than four years ahead of a tax increase ordered by finance minister Rachel Reeves which has already prompted suppliers to jack up their prices. The conflicting signals show why the BoE has said it will move only gradually and carefully with its next rate cuts after lowering them for only the third time since August this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2484(50%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the greenback gained broadly. The Bank of Canada signaled it may cut interest rates to support the economy in case of a trade war. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized maintaining the 2% inflation target in 2026, focusing on risks like potential U.S. tariffs. On the data front, Canadian retail sales rose 2.5% in December, boosted by a sales tax holiday, while a preliminary estimate showed a 0.4% drop in January. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.4230 to the U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.4169 to 1.4235. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4234(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4275(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4163(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4104 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined on Friday as yen rallied as a selloff in Japanese government bonds drove yields to 2009 highs after national core inflation hit a 19-month peak in January. The yen has gained about 3.9% against the dollar so far in February. Another quarter-basis point rate hike is not fully priced in until September, although interest rate markets have factored in a slight chance of a hike as soon as May. Japan's core consumer inflation rose to 3.2% in January, marking the fastest pace in 19 months. This exceeded the market's median forecast of 3.1% and followed a 3.0% increase in December, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue raising interest rates from their current low levels. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.51(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.43(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.72 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares settled near a record high on Friday and marked their longest streak of weekly gains in nearly a year, while Germany's DAX dipped as investors braced for the country's upcoming snap elections.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.39 percent.
U.S. stocks dropped on Friday, continuing their selloff after disappointing economic reports. The market ended a holiday-shortened week marked by new tariff threats and concerns about weakening consumer demand.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.69% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.71% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.20% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday as investors took profits from the previous session's record high. However, the metal was on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.
Spot gold shed 0.1% to $2,939.63 an ounce as of 02:24 a.m. ET (1924 GMT). Bullion has gained around 1.9% this week after rising to a record $2,954.69 on Thursday.U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,953.20.
Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Friday, ending the week lower as investors weighed the fading Middle East risk premium and uncertainty over a potential peace deal in Ukraine.
Brent futures settled down $2.05, or 2.68%, to $74.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $2.08, or 2.87%, to $70.40.
Brent closed 0.4% lower on the week, while U.S. crude futures posted a 0.5% weekly loss.