Posted at 21 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 2.1%, 0.9% forecast, -0.9% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.2%, 0.5% forecast, 2.1% previous
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jan) -15.44B, -20.10B forecast, 18.12B previous
• UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Jan) -22.484B, 20.154B previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.7%, 0.4% forecast, -0.6% previous
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.0%, 0.6% forecast, 2.8% previous
•French Business Survey (Feb) 97, 96 forecast, 96 previous
•Swiss M3 Money Supply (Jan) 1,152.9B, 11,576.7B previous
•HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.5, 45.3 forecast, 45.0 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Feb) 44.5, 48.0 forecast, 47.6 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Feb) 44.5, 48.8 forecast, 48.2 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb) 51.0, 50.8 forecast, 50.5 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.1, 45.4 forecast, 45.0 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb) 52.2, 52.4 forecast, 52.5 previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5, 50.5 forecast, 50.6 previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.4, 48.5 forecast, 48.3 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.1, 50.8 forecast, 50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.7% forecast, -0.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.6% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% previous
•14:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.3 forecast, 51.2 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 52.7 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 53.0 forecast, 52.9 previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (Jan) 4.13M forecast, 4.24M previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) 2.2% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 4.3% forecast, 3.3% forecast
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 3.3% forecast, 3.2% forecast
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb) 67.3 forecast, 67.3 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) 67.8 forecast, 71.1 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Feb) 68.7 forecast, 74.0 previous
•15:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Feb) -14.0 forecast, -14.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
•16:30 Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•17:30 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro stumbled after a series of business activity surveys revealed a sharp contraction in France and only a mild recovery in Germany during early February. Eurozone business activity saw only modest growth in February, with demand falling at a faster pace. The expansion in services barely offset the ongoing decline in manufacturing, according to a survey.Business activity in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, showed slight improvement after contracting for the second consecutive year in 2024. This uptick was driven by stable performance in services and a reduced drag from manufacturing. Meanwhile, France, the bloc’s second-largest economy, saw a much sharper-than-expected slump, with its PMI showing a significant decline in new business and backlogs in the dominant services sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0506(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0445(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0374(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded around two month-highs on Friday after data showed UK consumer spending picked up much more sharply than expected in January, while a separate survey of business activity showed British companies are rapidly cutting staff. The preliminary reading of the UK S&P Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February dipped marginally to 50.5 from 50.6 in January, remaining just above the 50 level that separates growth and contraction. But there was a sharper fall in employment which sank to 43.5 from 45.3, its lowest since November 2020 or since the 2007-08 financial crisis excluding the COVID pandemic period. Sterling was last down 0.20% on the day at $1.2642, around its highest in two months, having traded at $1.266 prior to the figures . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2484(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near two-month highs on Friday as traders digested RBA officials latest comments on further easing.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock stated that the central bank is cautious about further rate cuts due to cost pressures in a tight labor market, but will act if inflation slows faster than expected. The Australian economy has steadily created jobs over the past year, with the unemployment rate near 4%. Inflation has dropped from a 7.8% peak in late 2022 to 2.4% in Q4 2024, while annual wage growth has fallen by 1 percentage point.Swaps imply that investors see just a 17% probability that the RBA will follow up with a cut in April, while a move in May is still priced at 70%.At GMT 13:07 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.26% to $0.6384.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6409(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6434(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6350(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6330(Feb 20th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar recovered from a two-and-a-half-month low against the yen on Friday as investors took profits on short positions ahead of the long weekend. Despite this short-term bounce, the overall market sentiment remains bearish, with the next key target set at 149.00. On the data front, Japan's core consumer inflation rose to 3.2% in January, marking its fastest pace in 19 months, which strengthens expectations that the central bank will continue raising interest rates from their still-low levels. The year-on-year increase in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food prices, slightly exceeded the median market forecast of a 3.1% rise, following a 3.0% increase in December. At GMT 13:08, The greenback was last trading up 0.55% to 150.44 against Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.51(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.43(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.72 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday, mirroring gains in Asia, which reached a three-month high driven by optimism around AI. However, the gains were moderated by uncertainty surrounding developments in Ukraine and the upcoming German elections.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday but were on track for an eighth consecutive week of gains, fueled by two consecutive record highs. Safe-haven demand remained strong amid concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.
Spot gold shed 0.4% to $2,927.95 an ounce by 1204 GMT. Bullion has gained around 1.6% this week after rising to a record $2,954.69 on Thursday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $2,941.70.
Oil prices fell on Friday but were still set for a weekly gain, driven by supply disruptions in Russia. Uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal in Ukraine also added to the volatility in the market.
Brent futures slipped by 62 cents, or 0.81%, to $75.86 a barrel by 1304 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 63 cents, or 0.87%, to $71.85.