Posted at 21 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• 07:00 UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.9% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 07:00 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jan) -20.10B forecast, 17.81B previous
•07:00 UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Jan) 19.876B previous
• 07:00 UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 0.6% forecast, 3.6% previous
• 07:00 UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous
•07:45 French Business Survey (Feb) 96 95 previous
•08:00 Swiss M3 Money Supply (Jan) 1,157.9B previous
•08:15 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.3 forecast, 45.0 previous
•08:15 HCOB France Composite PMI (Feb) 48.0 foecast, 47.6 previous
•08:15 HCOB France Services PMI (Feb) 48.8 foecast, 48.2 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb) 50.8 forecast, 50.5 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.4 forecast, 45.0 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb) 52.4 forecast, 52.5 previous
•09:00 EU Italian CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•09:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•09:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jan) 1.1% previous
•09:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.7% forecast, 1.4% previous
•09:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.7% forecast, 0.1% previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.9 forecast, 46.6 previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5 forecast, 50.2 previous
•09:00 HCOB HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) 51.5 forecast, 51.3 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5 forecast 50.6 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 48.5 forecast, 48.3 previous
•09:30 UK GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 50.8 forecast, 50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar as investors focus turned to European PMI data and German elections over the weekend. Euro zone PMIs are expected to show a further expansion in growth, helped by a pick up in services and an easing of the long-running downturn in manufacturing. Euro zone PMIs are expected to show a further expansion in growth, helped by a pick up in services and an easing of the long-running downturn in manufacturing. Sunday’s German election may result in a conservative-led coalition government that faces pressure for much-needed change to revive the stagnant economy - and moves to block reform by populist parties if they do well . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0514(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0561(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0465(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0421(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased slightly on Friday as investors attention turned to U.K. retail sales and business activity data. Market players will be closely monitoring UK retail sales figures and preliminary business activity surveys data , for a read on the strength of the economy. They will follow Tuesday's jobs data that showed accelerating wage growth and last week's GDP figures that showed Britain's economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the final three months of last year. Sterling was last at $1.2661, down 0.005% against the dollar by 06:51 GMT. Against the euro it was down at 0.05% at 8284. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2645(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2867(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2569(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2487(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near two-month highs on Friday as traders digested RBA officials latest comments on further easing.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock stated that the central bank is cautious about further rate cuts due to cost pressures in a tight labor market, but will act if inflation slows faster than expected. The Australian economy has steadily created jobs over the past year, with the unemployment rate near 4%. Inflation has dropped from a 7.8% peak in late 2022 to 2.4% in Q4 2024, while annual wage growth has fallen by 1 percentage point.Swaps imply that investors see just a 17% probability that the RBA will follow up with a cut in April, while a move in May is still priced at 70%.At GMT 06:07 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.14% to $0.6389 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6409(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6434(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6350(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6330(Feb 20th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar recovered from two-month low against the yen on Friday after of a jump in Japanese inflation. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.2% in January for its fastest pace in 19 months, data showed on Friday, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will keep raising interest rates from levels still seen as low.The year-on-year increase in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food prices, slightly exceeded a median market forecast for a gain of 3.1% and followed December's rise of 3.0%. The yen has gained around 3.4% on the dollar through February so far and interest rate markets have priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.43(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.14(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.72 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares surged to a three-month high on Friday, driven by renewed interest in Chinese stocks due to optimism over artificial intelligence, while the U.S. exceptionalism narrative continued to lose appeal.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.28 % , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.02%,Hang Seng was up by 3.37%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped on Friday from a record high set in the previous session but remained on track for their eighth consecutive weekly gain, supported by safe-haven demand amid concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats.
Spot gold shed 0.4% to $2,927.89 an ounce by 0501 GMT. Bullion has added more than 1% so far this week, rising to an all-time high of $2,954.69 on Thursday.U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $2,942.
Oil prices held steady on Friday, on track for a weekly gain, driven by a better demand outlook in the U.S. and China. Concerns over supply disruptions in Russia also provided support.
Brent futures dipped 3 cents to $76.45 a barrel by 0414 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged down 4 cents to $72.44.