Posted at 20 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Greek Current Account (YoY) (Dec) -3.602B, -3.152B previous
•Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 2.487%, 2.388% previous
•Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.682%, 2.763% previous
•Spanish 8-Year Obligacion Auction 3.062%, 3.100% previous
•Belgium Consumer Confidence (Feb) -4, -11 previous
•EU Construction Output (MoM) (Dec) 0.00%, 0.58% previous
•UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Feb) -28, -30forecast, -34 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 215K forecast, 213K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 216.00K previous
•13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 19.4 forecast, 44.3 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Feb) 46.3 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Feb) 39.00 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Feb) 11.9 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Feb) 42.9 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Feb) 31.90 previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.8% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Jan) 4.1% previous
•13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Jan) 9.1% previous
•13:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Jan) 2.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
•15:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•15:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Feb) -14.0 forecast, -14.2 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -191B forecast, -100B previous
•16:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•16:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 4.250% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.240% previous
•17:00 US Crude Oil Inventories 3.200M forecast, 4.070M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar after a decline in the previous session, as top European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expressed differing views on inflation risks and the impact of current rates on economic growth. ECB officials clashed on Wednesday over whether further rate cuts are necessary, with inflation still high and growth sluggish. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, a policy hawk, suggested a pause in rate cuts, arguing that the 2.75% deposit rate is no longer clearly restrictive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0505(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0396(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0342(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Thursday as traders awaited UK data on consumer spending and business activity, following this week's strong inflation report that complicated the Bank of England's policy outlook. Wednesday's inflation data showed a faster-than-expected rise in consumer prices, which could reduce the likelihood of two rate cuts from the BoE this year. Market participants are closely watching UK retail sales and business activity data due Friday for insights into economic strength, following Tuesday's jobs report with accelerating wage growth and last week's unexpected 0.1% GDP growth in Q4.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2645(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2867(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2569(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2487(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday after a mixed jobs report showed employment exceeded forecasts for the second straight month in January. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a net increase of 44,300 jobs, surpassing the 20,000 forecast, with full-time employment rising by 54,100. The jobless rate edged up to 4.1% from 4.0% as the workforce grew faster than job creation. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, but warned that further cuts are uncertain due to inflation risks.At GMT 13:21 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.56% to $0.6379 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dropped to a two-month low against the yen on Wednesday as investors increased bets on potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that he met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to discuss the economy and financial markets, but did not touch on the recent rise in long-term interest rates. Investors have been betting more on the BOJ tightening policy sooner, supported by recent domestic data. The yen rose more than 0.8% to touch a high of 150.15 per dollar on Thursday, extending its gains from the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.07(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Thursday, as positive corporate updates outweighed declines in major sectors like energy and healthcare.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit an all-time high on Thursday, trading above $2,950 per ounce, as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats fueling a global trade war boosted investor demand for the metal.
Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $2,951.25 an ounce, as of 1136 GMT, after hitting $2,954.69 earlier in the session, its tenth record high this year.U.S. gold futures gained 1.1% to $2,969.30.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after rising to a near one-week high in the previous session, as an industry report showing a buildup in U.S. crude stockpiles weighed on the market.
Brent futures were up 37 cents at $76.41 a barrel by 1252 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 23 cents to $72.48.