Posted at 20 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Employment Change (Jan) 44.0K, 19.4K forecast, 60.0K previous
• Australia Full Employment Change (Jan) 54.1K ,-23.7K previous
• Australia Participation Rate (Jan) 67.3%, 67.1% forecast, 67.2% previous
• Australia Reserve Assets Total (Jan) 103.2B, 102.1B previous
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.1% ,4.1% forecast, 4.0% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Feb) 3.60% 3.60% forecast ,3.60% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.10%, 3.10% forecast, 3.10% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jan) 85.0 previous
•10:0 EUR Belgium Consumer Confidence (Feb) -11 previous
•10:00 Greek Current Account (YoY) (Dec) -3.152B previous
•10:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Dec) 1.16% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Feb) -30 forecast, -34 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar after having fallen in the previous session as top policymakers at the European Central Bank took opposing views on inflation risk and on how much the bank is holding back economic growth. Top ECB policymakers clashed on Wednesday over inflation risks and the impact of current rates on the economy. While the ECB has cut rates five times since June, there's growing debate on whether further cuts are needed, given inflation is still high and growth is sluggish. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, a policy hawk, argued that a pause should be considered, as the 2.75% deposit rate is no longer clearly restrictive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0505(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0396(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0342(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained some traction on Thursday as the dollar weakened due to concerns over new tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, keeping markets on edge. The greenback had traded sideways in recent sessions as Trump’s tariff threats lacked concrete actions, though cautious investor sentiment limited its losses. Meanwhile, UK inflation surged to a 10-month high of 3.0% in January, surpassing expectations and challenging the Bank of England’s confidence in long-term price stability. Interest rate futures priced in about 52 basis points of BoE rate cuts by December, down from more than 60 bps earlier this week.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2645(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2867(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2569(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2487(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday after a mixed jobs report showed employment exceeded forecasts for the second consecutive month in January. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a net increase of 44,300 jobs, following a 60,000 rise in December, surpassing the 20,000 forecast. Full-time employment rose by 54,100. The jobless rate edged up to 4.1% from 4.0% as the workforce grew more than the number of jobs. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, but cautioned that further cuts are uncertain due to inflation risks.At GMT 07:31 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.32% to $0.6364 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dropped to a two-month low against the yen on Thursday as investors increased bets on potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that he met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to discuss the economy and financial markets, but did not touch on the recent rise in long-term interest rates. Investors have been betting more on the BOJ tightening policy sooner, supported by recent domestic data. The yen rose more than 0.8% to touch a high of 150.15 per dollar on Thursday, extending its gains from the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.07(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares were under pressure on Thursday as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, geopolitical tensions, and a cautious stance from Federal Reserve policymakers weighed on risk sentiment.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 1.29 % , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.65%,Hang Seng was down by 1.48%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record high on Thursday as investors sought safety amid concerns that U.S. President Trump’s tariff plans could trigger inflation and a global trade war.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,945.83 an ounce, as of 0621 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,947.11 earlier in the session.
Oil prices dipped on Thursday after a report showed a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles, offsetting gains from the previous session driven by concerns over supply disruptions in Russia.
Brent futures were down 17 cents at $75.87 a barrel by 0600 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 30 cents to $71.95. The March contract expires on Thursday and the more active April contract eased 22 cents to $71.88.