Posted at 19 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.4%, -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.7%, 3.7% forecast, 3.2% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Jan) 0.3%, 0.0% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Jan) 1.5%, 1.6% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, 0.3% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.2%, 2.9% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.0%, 2.8% forecast, 2.5% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 135.40, 135.60 previous
•UK PPI Input (YoY) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.5% forecast, -1.3% previous
•UK PPI Input (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK PPI Output (YoY) (Jan) 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK PPI Output (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.6%, 3.7% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.1% previous, 0.3% previous
•EU Current Account (Dec) 38.4B,30.2B, 27.0B previous
•EU Current Account n.s.a. (Dec) 50.5B,34.6B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Jan) -0.7% previous
•13:30 US Building Permits (Jan) 1.460M forecast, 1.482M previous
•13:30 US Housing Starts (Jan) 1.390M forecast, 1.499M previous
•13:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan) 15.8% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.3% previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 16:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
•19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
•19:10 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors digested remarks from European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, a policy hawk, suggested it's time to consider pausing rate cuts, arguing that the current 2.75% deposit rate is no longer significantly restrictive for the economy . The European Central Bank's top policymakers are divided on the outlook for inflation and the economy. ECB has cut interest rates five times since June, and policymakers are now debating how much further rates should fall, with inflation still slightly high and growth sluggish. The ECB is expected to cut rates on March 6, but uncertainty remains about future moves, with no guarantee of a cut on April 17. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0501(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0457(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0405(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound initially gained but lost ground as the dollar strengthened as traders focused on Ukraine ceasefire talks and U.S. President Trump's latest tariff threats. Trump’s administration said Tuesday it agreed to more talks with Russia on ending the Ukraine war, marking a shift from its previous stance of isolating Putin. On Tuesday, Trump announced plans to impose 25% auto tariffs and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, further escalating tensions in international trade. On the data front, UK inflation surged to a 10-month high of 3.0% in January, likely to rise further, challenging the Bank of England's confidence in easing price pressures. Sterling was down 0.27% at $1.25790, coming off a two-month high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2650(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2766(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2554(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2624(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Wednesday as traders focused on talks over a Ukraine ceasefire and digested the latest round of tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump's administration announced on Tuesday it would hold more talks with Russia to end the Ukraine war, marking a shift from its previous stance of isolating President Putin. On the data front, Australian wages grew at the slowest pace in over two years in Q4, despite low unemployment, indicating that inflation may continue to ease. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.7% increase in the wage price index for Q4, the smallest rise since Q1 2022, falling short of the 0.8% forecast. At GMT 13:05 the Australian dollar was last trading down 0.01% to $0.6352 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Wednesday as the yen strengthened following hawkish remarks from BOJ board member Hajime Takata, who supported rate hikes to manage inflation risks. Takata refrained from commenting on the extent of future hikes. The BOJ raised its short-term interest rate to 0.5% in January, signaling confidence in Japan's progress toward its 2% inflation target. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated further rate hikes could be possible if wages continue to rise and support consumption, enabling firms to increase pay. At GMT 13:05 the US dollar was last trading down 0.16% to 151.81 against yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.07(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares dipped on Wednesday as traders cautiously shrugged off U.S President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats on auto, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.05 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to an all-time high on Wednesday as trade war tensions and worries about global economic growth sparked safe-haven buying, fueled by U.S. President Trump's new tariff threats.
Spot gold was steady at $2,935.10 an ounce as of 1215 GMT after surging to an all-time-high of $2,946.85/oz earlier in the session. Prices scaled record for a ninth time this year.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,953.1.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S., as the market awaits clarity on sanctions amid U.S. efforts to broker a deal to end the Ukraine war.
Brent crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $76.45 a barrel by 1155 GMT, on track for a third day of gains.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for March rose 70 cents, or 1%, to $72.55, up 2.6% from the previous close before Monday's U.S. public holiday.