Posted at 19 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.1%, -0.0% previous
•Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.7%, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q4) 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.6% previous
•New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3.75%, 3.75% forecast, 4.25% previous
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.4%, -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.7%, 3.7% forecast, 3.2% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Jan) 0.3%, 0.0% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Jan) 1.5%, 1.6% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, 0.3% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.2%, 2.9% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.0%, 2.8% forecast, 2.5% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 135.40, 135.60 previous
•UK PPI Input (YoY) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.5% forecast, -1.3% previous
•UK PPI Input (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK PPI Output (YoY) (Jan) 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK PPI Output (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.6%, 3.7% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.1% previous, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•EU Current Account (Dec) 30.2B, 27.0B previous
•EU Current Account n.s.a. (Dec) 34.6B previous
•UK House Price Index (YoY) 3.2%, 3.3% previous
•UK 4-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.384% previous
• Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jan) 85.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors eyed tariff threats and tense Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said no peace deal could be made behind his back. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia planned for Wednesday until March 10 to avoid giving "legitimacy" to the U.S.-Russia talks.Russia hardened its demands, notably insisting it would not tolerate the NATO alliance granting membership to Kyiv.Hopes of a peace agreement had buoyed the euro to a two-week high last week, but the EU bloc currency has slid in recent days. It was last 0.04% higher at $1.0449 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0501(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0457(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0405(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Wednesday after UK consumer inflation data for January came in above expectations, reducing the likelihood of two additional rate cuts by the Bank of England this year. The Office for National Statistics reported a 3% annual rise in the consumer price index, surpassing the 2.8% forecast. Services inflation, which the BoE has highlighted as a concern, increased to 5% from 4.4% in December, but was below the expected 5.2%. Sterling spiked briefly following the data but quickly retreated to its prior levels. By 0718 GMT it was up 0.05% at $1.262.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2650(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2766(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2554(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2624(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be scrutinized for insights on the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on inflation and spending. On the data front, Australian wages grew at the slowest pace in over two years in Q4, despite low unemployment, indicating that inflation may continue to ease. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.7% increase in the wage price index for Q4, the smallest rise since Q1 2022, falling short of the 0.8% forecast. At GMT 06:15 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.16% to $0.6361 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against yen on Wednesday as yen firmed as BOJ board member remarks support rate hike bets. BOJ board member Hajime Takata reinforced on Wednesday recent hawkish communications, saying the central bank must raise rates to avoid inflation risks, although he refused to comment on how far rates could go. The BOJ raised its short-term interest rate to 0.5% from 0.25% in January, reflecting its conviction that Japan was making progress in sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target.Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled his readiness to keep raising rates if wages continue to increase and underpin consumption, thereby allowing firms to keep hiking pay . Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.07(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fluctuated on Wednesday after the S&P 500 and European shares hit record highs, amid U.S. President Trump's new tariff threats on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.34 % , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.70%,Hang Seng was down by 0.34%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped on Wednesday as investors took profits after recent record highs and awaited peace talks, following the U.S. President Trump's administration's decision to engage in further discussions with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,930.38 an ounce, as of 0531 GMT, but was only $12 shy of its all-time high of $2,942.70 hit last week.
Oil prices edged up on Wednesday amid worries of oil supply disruptions in the U.S. and Russia, and as markets awaited clarity on the Ukraine peace talks.
Brent crude futures were up 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $75.98 a barrel at 0450 GMT, and possibly set for a third day of gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for March rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $72.01