Posted at 18 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Dec) 5.9%, t 5.9% forecast, 5.6% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) 6.0%, 5.9% forecast, 5.5% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jan) 22.0K, 10.0K forecast, previous -15.1K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Dec) 107K, 35K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.4%, 4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.7%, 1.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.8%, 1.8% forecast, 1.8% previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 24.2, 24.3 forecast, 18.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) -1.90, -12.60 previous
•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.1% forecast, 2.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.8% forecast, 1.8% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
•15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) 46 forecast, 47 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.225% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.185% previous
•18:00 US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.025% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•15:20 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as traders braced for talks in Saudi Arabia later on Tuesday aimed at ending the Ukraine war. Russian and U.S. officials are scheduled to meet for bilateral talks on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said the country would not recognise any decisions made in deliberations where they were not present. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, was 0.15% higher at 106.89.The euro was 0.19% lower at $1.0464 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0501(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0457(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0405(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased on Tuesday but stayed close to its recent two-month highs, as data showed accelerating British wage growth, reinforcing bets for a cautious rate cut path ahead for the Bank of England, despite a weak economy. British private-sector pay excluding bonuses - the BoE's main gauge of domestic inflation pressure - rose by 6.2% compared with the same period a year earlier, the fastest pace in a year, the Office for National Statistics said.Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 5.9% in the last three months of 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier. The increase marked the third straight monthly rise in wage pressures. The pound was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2593. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2650(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2766(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2554(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2624(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened on Tuesday as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans continued to weigh on economic growth prospects. Since taking office, Trump has reshaped global trade with a series of tariffs and plans for reciprocal measures targeting any nation taxing U.S. products. Market attention has now shifted to the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, due Wednesday, for insight into the central bank's interest rate outlook.At GMT 05:47, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.16% to $0.6345 Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against yen on Tuesday as the yen remained firm, supported by strong growth data on Monday that increased expectations of a rate hike in Japan.Japan's economy exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter, fueled by stronger business spending and an unexpected rise in consumption, bolstering the central bank's case for future rate hikes.Gross domestic product grew 2.8% annualized in the October-December quarter, according to preliminary data released on Monday, surpassing the market estimate of a 1.0% gain. At (GMT 13:17) US dollar was trading down 0.10% at 151.64 against the Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.07(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares pulled back from their record highs on Tuesday, as Capgemini led IT stocks lower and rising bond yields put additional pressure on the market, while a rally in defence stocks began to lose momentum.
At GMT (13:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.160 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, but traded below the all-time high, as uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans continued to fuel economic growth concerns and safe haven flows into bullion.
Spot gold gained 0.6% to $2,914.98 an ounce as of 1240 GMT. It hit a record high of $2,942.70 last week.U.S. gold futures added 1% to $2,928.80.
Oil extended gains on Tuesday following a drone attack on a Russian oil pipeline station that disrupted flows from Kazakhstan, though prices were capped by the potential for increased supply.
Brent crude futures gained 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $75.66 per barrel by 1014 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 91 cents from Friday's close to $71.65 a barrel. There was no settlement for WTI on Monday because of the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday.