Posted at 18 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb) 4.10%, 4.10%forecast, 4.35% previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Dec) 5.9%, t 5.9% forecast, 5.6% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) 6.0%, 5.9% forecast, 5.5% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jan) 22.0K, 10.0K forecast, previous -15.1K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Dec) 107K, 35K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.4%, 4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) -90.0 forecast, -90.4 previous
• 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 19.9 forecast, 10.3 previous
• 10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 24.3forecast, 18.0 previous
•10:30 EU German 2-Year Schatz Auction 2.260% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as traders braced for talks in Saudi Arabia later on Tuesday aimed at ending the Ukraine war. Russian and U.S. officials are scheduled to meet for bilateral talks on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said the country would not recognise any decisions made in deliberations where they were not present. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six other major currencies, was 0.15% higher at 106.89.The euro was 0.19% lower at $1.0464 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0501(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0457(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0405(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Tuesday following data that showed British wages rose by 5.9% annually in the last three months of 2024. According to the Office for National Statistics, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses increased by 5.9% compared to the same period a year earlier. This increase met expectations in a Reuters poll and marked the third consecutive monthly rise in wage pressures. This poses a challenge for the Bank of England, which has signaled its intention to cut interest rates. The pound was last down less than 0.1% against the dollar at $1.26145, rising from $1.2596 before the data.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2650(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2766(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2554(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2624(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the first cut in interest rates in more than four years but flagged that any further easing would be gradual.The Reserve Bank of Australia matched market expectations by lowering its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, citing a slowdown in core inflation toward its target band of 2-3%. The rate cut will provide some relief to borrowers and comes as good news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is facing a tough election to be held no later than May 17. Speculation is growing that he may use the opportunity to call an early election .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against yen on Tuesday as traders weighed tariff worries and the path to U.S. rate cuts. Investor focus this week will be on Wednesday's release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting in January to gauge how policymakers have sought to weigh the risk of a broader tariff war in the wake of President Donald Trump's trade policies. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday the sharp volatility seen in currency and stock markets last summer was mainly caused by investors' concern over weak U.S. jobs data and the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Japan's solid October-December GDP data on Monday, coupled with recent inflation numbers, have helped lift the yen. It is up nearly 4% against the dollar so far in 2025 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.40(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.07(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks climbed on Tuesday after a meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and business leaders raised hopes for increased support for the private sector.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.29 % , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.63%,Hang Seng was up by 1.21%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended their gains on Tuesday, as uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans continued to dominate market sentiment, driving safe-haven demand amid fears of a potential global trade war.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,913.79 an ounce, as of 0714 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.9% to $2,925.50.
Brent crude oil prices advanced on Tuesday adding to gains in the previous session after a drone attack on an oil pipeline pumping station in Russia reduced flows from Kazakhstan, but gains were capped on the prospects of supply rising soon.
Brent crude futures gained 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.37 per barrel at 0454 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 67 cents from Friday's close at $71.41 a barrel. There was no settlement for WTI on Monday due to the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday.