Posted at 17 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Trade Balance (Dec): 5.980B, 4.350B forecast, 3.995B previous
•Italian Trade Balance EU (Dec): -1.86B, -2.04B previous
•Spanish Trade Balance (Dec): -4.12B, -5.13B previous
•EU Trade Balance (Dec): 15.5B, 14.4B forecast, 16.0B previous
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction: 2.096%, 2.402% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
13:303 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Dec) 14.23B forecast,16.40B previous
13:303 CanadaForeign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Dec) 17.850B
14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.224%previous
14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.450%previous
14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.358%previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:30 FOMC Member Harker Speaks
• 15:20 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 23:00 Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors awaited more details on U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff plans, which could heighten global trade tensions. While the threat of U.S. tariffs has been postponed until April, concerns remain about the potential for tariffs targeting value-added taxes in other countries. The Financial Times reported that the European Commission is considering strict import limits on certain foods to protect its farmers, a move reminiscent of Trump's reciprocal trade policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0501(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0457(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0405(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling held steady on Monday as investors awaited key employment and inflation data later in the week. Economic data will be crucial for the pound, following the Bank of England's interest rate cut earlier this month and its cautious stance on price pressures. Analysts expect Tuesday's data to show a slight increase in average earnings growth for December, while unemployment is projected to rise to 4.5% from 4.4% in November. On Wednesday, inflation is expected to have risen to 2.8% year-on-year in January, up from 2.5% the previous month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2609(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2704(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2460(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as investors awaited Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its rate decision on Tuesday, with a 25 basis point cut to the 4.35% official cash rate expected. Australia will release wages data on Wednesday and jobs figures on Thursday. On Friday, RBA senior officials, including Governor Michele Bullock, will appear before parliament to explain their latest rate decision. At GMT 13:00, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.24% to $0.6363 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dropped on Monday as the yen strengthened, following stronger-than-expected economic data from Japan. Preliminary data revealed that Japan's GDP expanded by 2.8% annualized in the fourth quarter, surpassing the market’s median estimate of 1.0%. The growth was fueled by improved business investment and an unexpected rise in consumption, reinforcing expectations for more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) this year to support the economy. Geopolitics remained in focus with reports that talks aimed at ending the Russian-Ukraine conflict will begin in Saudi Arabia this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.31(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares stayed close to record highs on Monday, propelled by defense stocks as U.S. calls for increased military spending in the region gained momentum.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.09 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged back above $2,900 per ounce on Monday, driven by a weaker dollar and growing concerns over a potential trade war, as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened reciprocal tariffs.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,900.44 as of 1134 GMT after hitting a record high of $2,942.70 last week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,912.10.
Oil prices were little changed Monday, as investors eyed developments on a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could ease sanctions disrupting global supply flows.
Brent crude futures edged lower 8 cents, or 0.11%, to $74.66 a barrel at 1202 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5 cents, or 0.07% at $70.69 a barrel.