Posted at 17 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Japan GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4): 0.5%, 1.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
• Japan GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
• Japan GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q4): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.4% previous
• Japan GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (Q4): 0.1%, -0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
• Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Dec): -0.2%, -1.9% previous
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec): -0.2%, 0.3% forecast, -2.2% previous
• Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Dec): 7.10, 0.20 forecast, -1.20 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Dec): 4.350B, 4.218B previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Dec): -1.82B previous
•09:00 Spanish Trade Balance (Dec): -5.13B previous
•10:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
•10:00 EU Trade Balance (Dec): 14.4B forecast , 16.4B previous
•10:30 EU German 12-Month Bubill Auction: 2.402% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•11:00 German Buba Monthly Report
•11:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors awaiting further details on U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions. The imminent threat of reciprocal U.S. tariffs has receded until April, but the risk that they might include levies based on value added taxes in other countries was a major worry. The Financial Times reported on Sunday that the European Commission would explore tough import limits on certain foods made to different standards in an effort to protect its farmers, echoing President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0501(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0457(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0405(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Monday as investors awaited raft of UK data including employment, wages and consumer prices, which will impact market wagers on the timing of the next rate cut .Market watchers are looking ahead to a fourth-quarter 2024 labour report due next Tuesday for more direction on the BoE's interest rate path, after the previous report showed British pay growth remained robust at 6% in the three months to November though there were more signs of a softening jobs market. More pay growth can add to inflationary pressures. .Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak this week and will no doubt be questioned on the outlook.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2609(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2704(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2538(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2460(61.8%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as investors awaited Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its rate decision on Tuesday, with a 25 basis point cut to the 4.35% official cash rate expected. Australia will release wages data on Wednesday and jobs figures on Thursday. On Friday, RBA senior officials, including Governor Michele Bullock, will appear before parliament to explain their latest rate decision. At GMT 05:40, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.33% to $0.6365 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6463(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6343(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6316(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday after data showed Japan's economy expanded faster than expected in the fourth quarter cementing the case for more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) this year. Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter, on improved business spending and a surprise increase in consumption and shoring up the central bank's case for more interest rate hikes.Gross domestic product expanded 2.8% annualised in the October-December quarter, preliminary data showed on Monday, beating a median market estimate of a 1.0% . Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.52(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.43(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.31(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.70 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asia's share markets saw modest gains on Monday, driven by strong performance in Hong Kong's tech sector, which captured investor attention.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.10 % , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.75%,Hang Seng was down by 0.06%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Monday as the dollar weakened, with investors awaiting further details on U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,900.47 per ounce, as of 0536 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,912.00.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors eyed developments on a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could ease sanctions disrupting global supply flows.
Brent crude futures was up 7 cents at $74.81 a barrel at 0430 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was stable at $70.75 a barrel.