Posted at 14 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss PPI (YoY) (Jan) -0.3%, -0.9% previous
• Swiss PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% ,0.1%forecast, 0.0% previous
• Spanish Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% ,0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.9%, 3.0% forecast, 2.8% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% ,-0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•China M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Jan) 7.0%, 7.3% forecast, 7.3% previous
• EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4) 0.6%, 0.8% forecast, 1.0% previous
• EU Employment Overall (Q4) 169,345.0K forecast,169,161.3K previous
• EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.9% ,0.9% forecast,0.9% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 1.8% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 2.2% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 3.92% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Dec) 160.9K previous
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Jan) 77.7% forecast, 77.6% previous
•14:15 USD Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) 0.55% previous
•14:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•14:15 USD Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•14:30 CAD BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q4) 1.7 previous
•15:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec) 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•15:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec) 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•16:00 RUB CPI (YoY) (Jan) 10.0% forecast, 9.5% previous
•16:00 RUB CPI (MoM) (Jan) 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•18:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•18:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 480 previous
•18:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 586 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the dollar eased as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump's delayed reciprocal tariffs and U.S. data easing concerns about inflation. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% last month, following a revised 0.5% gain in December, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.3% rise. However, components of the PPI data linked to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, were softer, raising hopes that the PCE reading may be lower than expected. Looking Ahead, U.S. retail sales figures for January are due later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0489(61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0526(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0402(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0340(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Friday as dollar weakened as traders breathed a sigh of relief that Washington did not immediately impose reciprocal tariffs, suggesting room for negotiation, while a U.S. producer price report soothed inflation concerns . Money markets are expecting 60 basis points of further easing from the Bank of England this year, compared to a quarter-point from the Federal Reserve and at least four cuts from the European Central Bank. Traders are awaiting next Tuesday's Q4 2024 labour report for more clues on the BoE's rate path, after the last report showed UK pay growth stayed strong at 6%, despite signs of a softening jobs market .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2578(61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2613(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2458(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2326(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Friday as traders assessed the delay in Washington's reciprocal tariffs, fueling optimism for possible negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump instructed his economic team on Thursday to develop plans for reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing U.S. imports. However, he refrained from immediately imposing new tariffs, opting to initiate what could be weeks or months of investigation into the levies other countries place on U.S. goods.That buoyed expectations that there may yet be room for target countries to negotiate, which helped shore up sentiment. At GMT 12:51, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.43% to $0.6343 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6332(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6428(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6243(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6192(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined on Friday as investors increased bets on the Bank of Japan's continued interest rate hikes. The BOJ raised rates to 0.5% from 0.25% at its January meeting, citing Japan's progress toward sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated readiness to raise rates further if wage growth supports inflation around 2%. Most economists expect the BOJ to raise short-term rates later this year, according to a survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER). At GMT 12:54, The greenback was last trading down 0.11% to 152.61against Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.66(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.31(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.33 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares held steady at record highs on Friday, poised for their eighth consecutive week of gains, as luxury stocks surged following strong earnings from Birkin bag maker Hermes.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.38percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday and were on track for a seventh consecutive weekly gain as worries over a potential global trade war intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump's push for reciprocal tariffs.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,936.99 an ounce by 1104 GMT, taking its weekly advance to 2.6%. Bullion hit a record peak of $2,942.70 on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,961.30.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, set to break a three-week losing streak, supported by increased fuel demand and expectations that U.S. plans for global reciprocal tariffs would be delayed until April, allowing more time to avert a trade war.
Brent futures were up 59 cents, or 0.8%, at $75.61 a barrel by 1222 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $71.76. Both contracts were on track for weekly gains of about 1%.