Posted at 13 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) -0.7%, 4.4% previous
• UK Construction Output (MoM) (Dec) -0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• UK U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Dec) 1.5%, 1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• UK GDP (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.4%, 1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
• UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK GDP (YoY) (Dec) 1.5%, 1.0% forecast, 1.1% previous
• UK Index of Services 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
• UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) -1.9%, -2.1% forecast, -2.0% previous
• UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Dec) -1.4%, -1.9% forecast, -1.1% previous
• UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) 0.7%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
• UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Dec) 0.1%, -0.1% previous
• UK Trade Balance (Dec) -17.45B, -18.60B forecast, -18.90B previous
• UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) -6.10B, -7.19B previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.6% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Jan) 2.8% 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) -2.0%, -3.1% forecast, -1.8% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -1.1% ,-0.6% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,880K forecast, 1,886K previous
• 13:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.3% forecast, 3.5% previous
• 13:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 217K forecast, 219K previous
• 13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 216.75K previous
• 13:30 US PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 13:30 US PPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
• 13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Jan) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
• 13:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -174B previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -90B -174B previous
•16:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 4.250% previous
•16:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction 4.240% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro pared gains against the dollar as optimism over a Ukraine ceasefire deal fades while awaited U.S. producer price index data.U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Wednesday that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him.Trump has also ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine. Traders have been trying to tease out how Trump's threats will play out, with some market players betting tariffs will be a plus for the dollar. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) release later in the session will provide clues as to how hot the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, may come in on February 28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0445(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0509(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0340(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Thursday after data showed the British economy unexpectedly grew in the final quarter of last year, offering some respite from an otherwise downbeat economic outlook. Britain's economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of last year, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday.GDP rose by 0.4% in December from November, much stronger than the 0.1% forecast and driven by stronger-than-expected 0.4%growth in the large services sector.Last week the Bank of England halved its forecast for growth in 2025 to 0.75%, although other forecasters such as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research remain more upbeat with a 1.5% growth forecast.The pound rose 0.21% to $1.2446 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2528(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2441(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2395(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2238(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gave up earlier ground against greenback on Thursday as investors shifted to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data due at 1330 GMT, followed by Friday's retail sales report, for further economic clues.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, at his second congressional hearing this week, reiterated that the central bank was in no rush to cut interest rates. .Tariffs continued to be a point of contention, with Trump indicating that he might sign reciprocal levies on Wednesday or Thursday. the dollar index , which measures the greenback against the yen, euro and other peers, hovering around its lowest since February 5. It was last at 107.80, after rising as high as 108.52 in the previous session. At GMT 13:10, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.27% to $0.6262 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6321(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6381(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6249(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6183(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased from one-week high against the Japanese yen as investors awaited PPI data to gauge the central bank's interest-rate trajectory, while the prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace talks spurred some risk-taking. Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had expressed a desire for peace in separate phone conversations with him on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he planned to unveil reciprocal tariffs, adding to the market's anxiety.The focus will be on the January producer price index report, expected at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a monthly uptick of 0.3%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.22(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.94(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.92 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s main stock surged on Thursday, fueled by growing optimism over a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, while bond buyers recovered from their recent concerns following stubbornly high U.S. inflation data..
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.55percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.69 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.32 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold gained on Thursday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over President Trump's tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions, as investors awaited more inflation data.
Spot gold added 0.5% to $2,917 per ounce as of 1158 GMT, moving back towards its record peak of $2,942.70 hit on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.6% to $2,944.80.
Oil prices dropped 1% on Thursday, weighed down by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and rising U.S. crude inventories.
Brent futures were down 86 cents, or 1.1%, at $74.32 a barrel by 1138 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 91 cents, or 1.3%, to $70.46.