Posted at 12 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -3.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) -7.1%, -1.5% previous
• Portuguese CPI (YoY) (Jan) -0.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
• Portuguese CPI (MoM) (Jan) 2.5%,-0.5% forecast ,0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 13:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
• 13:30 US Core CPI Index (Jan) 323.38 previous
•13:30 US CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•13:30 US CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Jan) 317.46 forecast, 315.61 previous
• 13:30 US CPI Index, s.a. (Jan) 317.69 previous
• 13:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jan) 0.04% previous
• 13:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% previous
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 2.400M forecast, 8.664M previous
• 15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.160M previous
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.178M previous
• 15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.034M previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.186M previous
• 15:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.500M forecast, -5.471M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 15;00 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies 15:00 previous
• 17:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
• 17:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Wednesday as traders waited on U.S. inflation data and news on the broader trade front. Economists polled expect core CPI to increase slightly to 0.3% for January and businesses have already started laying the groundwork for future tariff-driven price rises.A rate cut in the U.S. is not fully priced until September and only 35 basis points of easing are priced in for this year. Overnight the European Union, Mexico and Canada condemned Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports and the European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said there would be counter-measures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0328(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0375(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0325(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.222(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited crucial U.S. inflation data, while uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy kept markets on edge. Focus in the currency markets was on the upcoming U.S. inflation data, set for release at 1330 GMT, which could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for now. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank was not in a hurry to implement further easing due to the strength of the economy. In contrast, markets are now pricing in additional rate cuts from the Bank of England after the central bank reduced the bank rate by 25 basis points last week. Sterling was little changed against the dollar at $1.2443. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2395(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2441(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2345(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2284(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell on Wednesday ahead of the key U.S. inflation report. Attention is on the U.S. consumer price data, with forecasts predicting a 0.3% rise in core inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is in no hurry to cut rates. Traders are now focused on next week’s RBA meeting, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reduce its cash rate by a quarter point on Tuesday, marking its firs rate cut since late 2020. However, most economists anticipate a hawkish stance due to the strong labor market.. At GMT 13:03, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.27% to $0.6276 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6321(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6381(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6249(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6183(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Wednesday as investors focus shifted to U.S. inflation data and trade tariffs. Meanwhile, after raising steel and aluminium tariffs to 25% earlier this week, Trump's advisers are now finalising plans for reciprocal tariffs.Investors are closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due at 1330 GMT. The print is expected to show a 0.3% rise in consumer prices in January after December's 0.4% increase. Attention will also be on Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data and Powell's testimony before Congress later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.06(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.0(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.67(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.55 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares continued to rise on Wednesday, reaching a record high, buoyed by strong earnings from beverage makers like Heineken, while investors awaited crucial U.S. inflation data.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased from record highs on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated he was in no rush to cut interest rates, while the focus shifted to U.S. inflation data and trade tariffs.
Spot gold eased 0.5% to $2,884.51 per ounce by 1137 GMT. Prices climbed to a record high of $2,942.70. U.S. gold futures fell 0.8% to $2,910.10.
Oil prices dropped 1% on Wednesday, breaking a three-day winning streak, as rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated slower rate cuts this year.
Brent futures were down 77 cents or 1% at $76.23 a barrel by 1230 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 88 cents or 1.20% to $72.44 a barrel.