Posted at 07 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Imports (MoM) (Dec) 2.1%, 1.8% forecast, -2.7% previous
•German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -2.4%, -0.7% forecast, 1.3% previous
•German Trade Balance (Dec) 20.7B, 17.0B forecast, 19.2B previous
•German Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) -3.12%, -2.95% previous
•French Current Account (Dec) 2.40B, -1.20B previous
•French Exports (Dec) 52.3B, 50.3B previous
•French Imports (Dec) 56.2B, 56.6B previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French Reserve Assets Total (Dec) 275,078.0M, 275,078.0M previous
•French Trade Balance (Dec) -3.9B, -5.3B forecast, -6.3B previous
•Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Jan) 736.4B, 730.9B previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Q1) -21, -31 forecast, -27 previous
•China FX Reserves (USD) (Jan) 3.209T, 3.200T forecast, 3.202T previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan) 3.8% forecast, 3.9% previous
•13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Jan) 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•13:30 US Government Payrolls (Jan) 33.0K previous
•13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan) -2K forecast, -13K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 169K forecast, 256K previous
•13:30 US Participation Rate (Jan) 62.5% previous
•13:30 US Payrolls Benchmark -266.00 previous
•13:30 US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. -818.00K previous
•13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 141K forecast, 223K previous
•13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Jan) 7.5% previous
•13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Jan) 3.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Employment Change (Jan) 25.5K forecast, 90.9K previous
•13:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Jan) 57.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Jan) 33.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Participation Rate (Jan) 65.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 3.3% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 3.2% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb) 70.0 forecast, 69.3 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) 71.9 forecast, 71.1 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Feb) 73.0 forecast, 74.0 previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Dec) -0.5% forecast , -0.5% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:25 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•15:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday as market attention shifted to U.S. payroll data due later in the day. U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to show slower job growth in January, but this may not prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts before mid-year. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that a full-employment economy with solid growth and falling inflation would allow the Fed to continue cutting rates, though uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policy changes suggests a more cautious approach.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0416(50 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0439(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0369(50%fib), a break below could tae the pair towards 1.9293 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound regained some ground on Friday after falling 1.1% on Thursday following the Bank of England's rate cut and revised growth forecast. The BoE lowered rates to 4.5% and cut its growth projection for the year to 0.75%, half of the previous estimate. The pound recovered after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that markets should not overinterpret some policymakers' support for deeper rate cuts. Investors struggled to react to the BoE's forecasts, which also revised inflation expectations up to 3.7% for the year, well above the previous forecast of 2.8%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2508(Feb 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2535(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2421(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2298(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Friday as investors awaited U.S. payroll data for insights into the U.S. interest rate cycle. Economists predicted nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 170,000 in January, down from December's surge of 256,000. The U.S. central bank kept its benchmark overnight rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% last month, after reducing it by 100 basis points since September. Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut in June.. At GMT 13:14, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.06% to $0.6279. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6296(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6326(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6153(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar inched higher on Friday as markets awaited the U.S. monthly payrolls data. After a volatile week with fluctuating headlines on U.S. tariff threats, traders turned their attention to the jobs report while staying cautious about geopolitics and U.S. President Trump's broader policies. U.S. job growth likely slowed in January, partly due to California wildfires and cold weather across the country, though not enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts before mid-year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.88 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.35(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.91(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were largely unchanged on Friday as investors awaited U.S. payrolls data, due later in the day, which is expected to show a moderation in jobs growth.
At GMT (13:12) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 027 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Friday, heading for a sixth consecutive week of gains driven by trade war concerns and safe-haven demand, as focus shifted to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report for insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $2,865.36 per ounce as of 1212 GMT, rising more than 2% this week. Bullion hit an all-time high of $2,882.16 on Wednesday.
Oil prices rose on Friday following new sanctions on Iran's crude exports, but were set for a third consecutive week of decline, impacted by U.S. President Trump's renewed trade war with China and tariff threats on other countries.
Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $74.71 a barrel at 1300 GMT, but were set to drop 2.6% for the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $71 a barrel, down 2% for the week.