Posted at 07 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Dec) 1.4%, -1.4% previous
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Dec) 1.1%, -1.6% previous
• Japan Leading Index (Dec) 108.9, 108.2 forecast, 107.5 previous
•French Exports (Dec) 52.3B, 50.3B
•French Imports (Dec) 56.2B, 56.6B
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French Reserve Assets Total (Dec) 275,078.0M, 275,078.0M previous
•French Trade Balance (Dec) -3.9B, -5.3B forecast, -6.3B previous
•Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Jan) 736,392.0B, 730,872.0B previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (Q1) -21, -31 forecast, -27 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 10:00 UK Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Jan) 7.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•08:45 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Friday as market focus shifted U.S. payroll figures later in the day. The U.S. labor market has remained resilient. Economists polled by Reuters expect the unemployment rate in January to have stayed steady at 4.1% while projecting the economy added 170,000 jobs. A full-employment economy with solid growth and falling inflation will let the Federal Reserve continue cutting rates, though uncertainty about the impact of tariffs and other policy changes argues for a slower approach, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0416(50 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0439(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0369(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9293 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was steady at $1.2421 after dropping 0.5% on Friday as the BoE cut interest rates by 25 basis points but warned it would be cautious going forward, in the face of a potential inflation uptick and geopolitical worries. Investors priced in two or three more quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, little changed from earlier. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was at 107.7. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2508(Feb 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2535(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2421(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2298(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Friday as investors focused on U.S. payroll data for any hints on the U.S. interest rate cycle.Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after surging 256,000 in December, a poll of economists showed. The U.S. central bank left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range last month, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September, when it embarked on its policy easing cycle. Financial markets are expecting a rate cut in June. At GMT 07:51, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.05% to $0.6285. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6296(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6326(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6153(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as market awaited U.S. monthly payrolls figures due later in the day. After a volatile week marked by fluctuating market-moving headlines on U.S. tariff threats, traders focused on the U.S. jobs data while remaining cautious about geopolitics and U.S. President Donald Trump's broad policy moves.U.S. job growth likely slowed in January, partly restrained by wild fires in California and cold weather across much of the country, though not enough for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts before the end of the first half. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.88 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.35(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.91(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks was mixed on Friday ahead of U.S. payrolls data, as investors eyed the possibility of avoiding a broader trade war.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.63% , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.58%,Hang Seng was up by 1.04%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Friday, staying near record highs and on track for a sixth consecutive weekly gain, as trade war fears boosted safe-haven buying ahead of the key U.S. payrolls report.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,864.11 per ounce, as of 0721 GMT, and has gained more than 2% this week. Bullion hit an all-time high at $2,882.16 on Wednesday.
Oil prices edged up slightly in Asian trade on Friday but were still set for a third consecutive week of decline, pressured by U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed trade war with China and threats of tariff hikes on other countries.
Brent crude futures were up 52 cents at $74.81 a barrel by 0735 GMT, but were poised to fall 2.5% this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 44 cents to $71.05 a barrel, down about 2% on a weekly basis.