Posted at 06 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jan) 3.0%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•Sweden CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.0%, -0.6% , 0.0 previous %
•Sweden CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.0%, 0.5% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) (Jan) 2.2%, 1.6% forecast, 1.5% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) (Jan) 0.4%, -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) 6.9%, 1.9% forecast, -5.4% previous
•Finnish Trade Balance (Dec) -0.11B, 0.13B previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan) 50.9, 51.2 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jan) 42.5, 37.8 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan) 44.5, 42.6 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan) 45.4, 42.9 previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan) 48.1, 53.5 forecast, 53.3 previous
•Spanish 30-Year Obligacion Auction 3.691%, 3.877% previous
•French 30-Year OAT Auction 3.66%, 3.93% previous
•Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 2.388%, 2.586% previous
•Spanish 7-Year Obligacion Auction 2.705%, 2.897% previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 1.6% previous
• German Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) -2.8%, -7.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K, 1,858K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 214K forecast, 207K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.50K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5% forecast, 2.2% previous
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 3.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•14:00 Canada Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.24% previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Jan) 16.80M previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jan) 44.3 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Jan) 53.0, 54.7 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -167B forecast, -321B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.250% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.240% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•16:15 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•19:30 Fed Waller Speaks
•20:30 FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•21:05 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•22:00 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•22:10 Fed Logan Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as dollar firmed ahead of US jobs data. Market focus is on U.S. weekly jobless claims data, set to be released at 1330 GMT, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to provide more insights into the economy's overall strength. Federal Reserve officials highlighted the significant policy uncertainty around tariffs and other issues from the early days of Trump's administration as key challenges in shaping U.S. monetary policy in the coming months. Eurozone retail sales saw a slight decline in December after a rise in November, with the volume of retail trade dropping 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.1% increase the previous month, according to Eurostat data.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0416(50 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0439(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0369(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9293 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slumped sharply on Thursday after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%. The Bank of England lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday, judging a sharp upward revision to its inflation forecasts for this year will prove temporary, while two officials called for a bigger rate cut against a backdrop of weaker growth.The cut to 4.5% was in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, but the two dissenting votes from external members Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra in favour of a bigger rate cut to 4.25% were not. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the BoE would be "monitoring the UK economy and global developments very closely and taking a gradual and careful approach to reducing rates further" - a shift from December's language where he spoke only of a gradual approach. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2511(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2574(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2374(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2253(Fe 3rd low)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Thursday as investors focused on U.S. payroll data. In the absence of tariff headlines, markets looked ahead to Friday's key U.S. monthly payrolls figures, the next major test for the U.S. monetary policy outlook. On the data front, Australia's trade surplus sharply narrowed in December due to a surge in imports of capital equipment, which outpaced gains in iron ore exports. Australia's trade surplus narrowed to A$5.1 billion in December, down from A$6.8 billion in November and below the A$7.0 billion forecast. At GMT 12:03, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.36% to $0.6262. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6296(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6326(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6153(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped to hit eight-week low on Thursday after a Bank of Japan policy board member advocated continued interest-rate hikes. Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the BoJ must raise interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of the fiscal year starting in April. His hawkish remarks fueled speculation of a near-term rate hike. The yen strengthened as far as 151.81 per dollar the strongest level since December 12 in the Tokyo morning. Japan’s currency was last trading at 152.41 per dollar as of 12:03 GMT up 0.12% on the day . Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.74 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.50(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.40(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.96 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a record high on Thursday as attention shifted back to global interest rates and the direction of tech stocks, following days of trade war concerns.
At GMT (13:24) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.97 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.99 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Thursday after a five-session rally to record highs, fueled by trade war tensions between the world's two largest economies, raising concerns about economic growth and uncertainty over the future direction of U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold edged 0.1 higher to $2,867.93 per ounce by 1214 GMT after hitting an all-time high of $2,882.16 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were flat at 2,892.20.
Spot gold edged 0.1 higher to $2,867.93 per ounce by 1214 GMT after hitting an all-time high of $2,882.16 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were flat at 2,892.20.
Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.89 a barrel by 1251 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 29 cents, also 0.4%, at $71.32.