Posted at 06 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -1,458.4B, 193.1B previous
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -315.2B ,752.7B previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Dec) 1.1%, 4.2% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Dec) 5.9%, 1.4% previous
•Australia Trade Balance (Dec) 5.085B, 6.520B forecast, 6.792B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan) 51.2 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Jan) 37.8 previous
•08:30 HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan) 42.6 previous
•08:30 HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Jan) 42.9 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan) 53.5, 53.3 previous
•10:00 German Car Registration (YoY) (Jan) -7.1% previous
•10:00 French 10-Year OAT Auction 3.40% previous
•10:00 French 30-Year OAT Auction 3.93% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 1.9% forecast, 1.2% previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC vote cut (Feb) 8 forecast, 3 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC vote hike (Feb) 0 forecast, 0 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (Feb) 1 forecast, 6 previous
•12:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb) 4.50% forecast, 4.75% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as dollar recovered slightly ahead of US jobs data. Market focus is on U.S. weekly jobless claims data, set to be released at 1330 GMT, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to provide more insights into the economy's overall strength. Federal Reserve officials highlighted the significant policy uncertainty around tariffs and other issues from the early days of Trump's administration as key challenges in shaping U.S. monetary policy in the coming months. The dollar index which measures the U.S. currency against the yen, euro, sterling and three other major peers stood at 107.76, not far from its overnight low of 107.29. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0416(50 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0439(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0369(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9293 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased slightly on Thursday as the market awaited the widely expected BoE rate cut. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates, marking its third reduction since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This move aims to support the sluggish economy amid persistent inflation pressures. The focus will be on the outlook for UK rates, with investors concerned about factors like finance minister Rachel Reeves' tax increases, the potential for a global trade war led by Trump, and rising costs. The BoE's benchmark rate stands at 4.75%, the highest among major economies. The expected quarter-point cut would align it with Norway's rate and near the U.S. Federal Reserve's range of 4.25-4.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2548(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2669(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2469(Feb 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2427(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Thursday as investors focused on U.S. payroll data. U.S. President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are set to discuss trade, raising hopes that tensions could ease and tariffs might be reversed. On the data front, Australia's trade surplus sharply narrowed in December due to a surge in imports of capital equipment, which outpaced gains in iron ore exports. Australia's trade surplus narrowed to A$5.1 billion in December, down from A$6.8 billion in November and below the A$7.0 billion forecast.At GMT 06:58, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.34% to $0.6232. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6296(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6326(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6153(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped to hit eight-week low on Thursday after a Bank of Japan policy board member advocated continued interest-rate hikes. Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the BoJ must raise interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of the fiscal year starting in April. His hawkish remarks fueled speculation of a near-term rate hike. The yen strengthened as far as 151.81 per dollar the strongest level since December 12 in the Tokyo morning. Japan’s currency was changing hands at 152.59 per dollar as of 07:23 GMT, up 0.01% on the previous day, after paring some of its early gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.74 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.50(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.40(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.96 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asia shares rose on Thursday, following gains on Wall Street after a volatile session. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure following mixed economic data.
Jappan’s Nikkei was up 0.63% , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.10%,Hang Seng was up by 0.99%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, staying near record highs from the previous session, as tensions in the China-U.S. trade war boosted safe-haven demand. Investors also awaited U.S. jobs data for clues on the future direction of interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,868.94 per ounce, by 0507 GMT, after hitting an all-time peak of $2,882.16 in the previous session.
Oil prices edged up in Asian trading on Thursday after Saudi Arabia's state oil company raised March oil prices. However, the increase was minimal compared to the significant drop in benchmark Brent prices the previous day, marking the biggest slide in nearly three months.
Brent crude futures rose 8 cents to $74.69 a barrel by 0422 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 15 cents to $71.18 a barrel