Posted at 05 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -0.4%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•HCOB Spain Services PMI (Jan) 54.9, 56.7 forecast, 57.3 previous
•HCOB Italy Services PMI (Jan) 50.4, 50.5 forecast, 50.7 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Jan) 47.6, 48.3 forecast, 47.5 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Jan) 48.2, 48.9 forecast, 49.3 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jan) 50.5, 50.1 forecast, 48.0 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jan) 52.5, 52.5 forecast, 51.2 previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 0.6%, 1.1% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.6%, 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jan) 50.2, 50.2 forecast, 49.6 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) 51.3, 51.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 50.6, 50.9 forecast, 50.4 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 50.8, 51.2 forecast, 51.1 previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.0%, -0.1% forecast, -1.2% previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 148K forecast, 122K previous
•13:30 US Imports (Dec) 351.60B previous
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Dec) -96.50B forecast, -78.20B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Dec) 66.11B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Dec) 66.43B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Dec) 1.00B forecast, -0.32B previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 52.4 forecast, 55.4 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 52.8 forecast, 56.8 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Jan) 58.2 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) 51.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Jan) 54.2 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 54.2 forecast, 54.1 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 64.4 previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Jan) 16.80M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories 2.400M forecast, 3.463M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•14:00 EUR ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Wednesday as the dollar retreated, with markets focused on tariff news from the White House. Trump imposed a 10% tariff on China, leading Beijing to retaliate with tariffs on select U.S. imports, reigniting the trade war. Market volatility has been high, particularly after Trump's announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which he later delayed. A U.S. private payrolls report for January is due at 8:15 a.m. ET, followed by a U.S. services activity survey shortly after the open. The euro rose 0.40% to $1.0419. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0416(50 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0439(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0369(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9293 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit a one-month high on Wednesday as the dollar retreated, with markets focused on tariff news from the White House. The dollar dropped on Tuesday after U.S. job openings fell by 556,000 to 7.6 million in December, the largest drop in 14 months. On the macro front, the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meets Thursday to decide on interest rates, with a 25-basis-point cut fully priced in.At (GMT 13:00) Pound was trading at up 0.48% to 1.2537 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2548(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2669(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2469(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2427(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Wednesday as greenback weakened following soft U.S. economic data. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings dropped by the most in 14 months in December, but steady hiring and low layoffs indicated the labor market isn’t slowing sharply.The Labor Department's JOLTS report on Tuesday showed 1.1 job openings for every unemployed person in December, down from 1.15 in November.Currency market volatility eased on Wednesday after a turbulent start to the week following Trump's steep tariffs on key U.S. trading partners. At GMT 12:57, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.44% to $0.6283. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6292(SMA 50), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6317(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6219(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6093(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Wednesday as the yen strengthened following positive wage data from Japan, which fueled expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan this year. December's inflation-adjusted real wages in Japan rose 0.6% year-on-year, driven by a winter bonus boost, according to preliminary government data. Officials expressed optimism that wage growth momentum is building. The 0.6% increase marked the second consecutive rise in real wages, following a revision to November's data, which showed a 0.5% uptick from a previous 0.3% drop. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.55 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.45(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.22(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares dipped on Wednesday, as gains in healthcare stocks following Novo Nordisk's strong earnings were overshadowed by losses in automobile and technology sectors.
At GMT (13:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit an all-time high on Tuesday as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset after China retaliated with tariffs on the U.S. in response to President Trump’s tariffs.
Spot gold gained 1.1% to $2,844.56 per ounce as of 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), after hitting a record high of $2,845.14 earlier in the session.
Oil prices dropped over 1% on Wednesday as rising U.S. stockpiles and concerns about a new Sino-U.S. trade war fueled fears of weaker economic growth, offsetting President Trump’s renewed push to eliminate Iranian crude exports.
Brent crude futures were down 92 cents, or 1.21%, at $75.28 a barrel at 1210 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was down 86 cents, or 1.18%, to $71.84.