Posted at 05 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) -0.1%, -0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•New Zealand Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q4) 2.9%, 3.0% forecast, 3.4% previous
•New Zealand Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•New Zealand Participation Rate (Q4) 71.00%, 71.10% forecast, 71.10% previous
•New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q4) 5.1%, 5.1% forecast, 4.8% previous
•Australia AIG Construction Index (Dec) -20.0, -19.0 previous
•Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Dec) -22.7, -17.9 previous
•Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Jan) 51.2, 50.4 forecast, 50.8 previous
•Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 4.8%, 3.6% forecast, 3.9% previous
•Japan Overall Wage Income of Employees (Dec) 4.8%, 3.8% forecast, 3.9% previous
•Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (Dec) 1.30%, 1.40% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:45 EU HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Jan) 49.7
• 08:45 EU HCOB Italy Services PMI (Jan) 50.5, 50.7 previous
• 08:50 EU HCOB France Composite PMI (Jan) 48.3, 47.5 previous
•08:50 EU HCOB France Services PMI (Jan) 48.9, 49.3 previous
•08:55 EU HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jan) 50.1, 48.0 previous
•08:55 EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jan) 52.5, 51.2 previous
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 1.1% previous
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jan) 50.2 forecast, 49.6 previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jan) 51.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 50.9 forecast, 50.4 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 51.2, 51.1 previous
•10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Dec) -0.1%, -1.2% previous
•10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, 1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Wednesday as Trump’s tariff threats were viewed more as a negotiation tactic than a final objective, following his suspension of planned measures against Mexico and Canada. The delays to tariffs on Canada and Mexico eased worries the Fed might be severely restricted in how far it could cut interest rates and prompted a bounce in fund futures. The dollar index was down at 107.714 from Monday's spike top of 109.880. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.0403. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0416(50 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0439(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0369(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9293 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Wednesday as global market sentiment remained cautious amid fears of a new trade war between the U.S. and China. Beijing imposed targeted tariffs on U.S. imports and warned several companies, including Google, of potential sanctions in response to Trump's tariffs. U.S. President Trump stated on Tuesday that he was in no rush to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to ease trade tensions between the two largest economies. On the macroeconomic front, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. On the same day, markets will get a reading of Britain's PMI figures for January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2500(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2553(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2437(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2313(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against greenback on Wednesday as investors awaited efforts by China and the U.S. to defuse their escalating trade war. China hit U.S. imports with tariffs in response to new U.S. duties, while Trump said he’s not in a hurry to talk to Xi. Currency market volatility eased on Wednesday after a turbulent start to the week following Trump's steep tariffs on key U.S. trading partners. At GMT 08:02, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.38% to $0.6273. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6292(SMA 50), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6317(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6219(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6093(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Wednesday as yen gained after upbeat data on wages supported expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan this year.Japan's December inflation-adjusted real wages rose 0.6% year-on-year thanks to a wintertime bonus bump, preliminary government data showed on Wednesday, with government officials expressing optimism that wage hike momentum ahead is growing. December’s real wages, a barometer of consumer purchasing power, grew 0.6% in December from a year earlier, data from the labour ministry showed. The inflation-adjusted wages rose for the second consecutive month after the ministry revised up November's figure to a 0.5% uptick from a 0.3% drop. The U.S. dollar gained 0.3% to 155.31 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.55 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.45(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.22(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets struggled on Wednesday as Wall Street futures dropped following earnings disappointments.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.08% , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.11%, and Hang Seng was down by 0.98%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, driven by fears of a new trade war between the U.S. and China after Beijing imposed tariffs on U.S. imports in response to new U.S. duties on Chinese goods.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,855.32 per ounce by 0501 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,858.12 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,884.60.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday as rising U.S. stockpiles and concerns about a new Sino-U.S. trade war overshadowed President Trump's renewed efforts to eliminate Iranian crude exports.
Brent crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.28%, at $75.99 a barrel by 0701 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) lost 11 cents, or 0.15%, to $72.59.