Posted at 04 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Government Budget Balance (Dec) -156.3B,-172.5B previous
•Spanish Unemployment Change (Jan) 38.7K, 45.4K forecast, -25.3K previous
•Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 2.221%,2.367% previous
•Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 2.355%, 2.535% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 USD Redbook (YoY) 4.9% previous
•14:00 NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 1.4% previous
•14:00 USD Milk Auctions 4,146.0 previous
•15:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Dec) -2.4% forecast, -2.4% previous
•15:00 USD Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% previous
•15:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) -0.7% forecast, -0.4% previous
•15:00 USD Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% previous
•15:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) 8.010M forecast ,8.098M previous
•15:10 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Feb) 53.0 forecast, 51.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 16:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods came into effect, triggering swift retaliation from Beijing. China on Tuesday placed tariffs on U.S. imports, renewing a trade war between the world's top two economies as Trump claimed China was not doing enough to halt the flow of illicit drugs into the United States. The euro slid 0.09% to $1.0333, after recovering from the lowest since November 2022 at $1.0125 on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0329(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0379(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0279(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9214 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Tuesday as mood in global markets remained cautious amid fears of a potential trade war between the U.S. and China. The U.S. and China escalated tensions with retaliatory tariffs, raising concerns about a broader and more damaging trade conflict. Overnight, Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. On the economic front, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Markets will also receive Britain’s PMI figures for January on the same day. Sterling fell 0.27% to $1.2415. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2460(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2599(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2316(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2154(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Tuesday as the greenback regained strength after sudden shifts in U.S. tariff policy caused turbulence in global markets. The rebound followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month, raising hopes that the tariffs might eventually be avoided. The Australian dollar , which often acts as a liquid proxy for the yuan because the Australian economy is highly exposed to China, fell 0.23% to $0.6211, well above Monday's low of $0.6085. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6243(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.633(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6173(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6093(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as tariffs on Chinese goods took effect. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration imposed additional 10% tariffs on imports from China from 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday. In retaliation, China announced tariffs on some U.S. imports, heightening concerns of a trade war between the two economies. China's new tariffs on targeted U.S. exports will begin on Feb. 10, giving both Washington and Beijing some time to negotiate a deal that Chinese policymakers hope to reach with Trump. The U.S. dollar gained 0.3% to 155.31 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.90 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.90(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.67 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares extended losses on Tuesday, led by financials after UBS's quarterly earnings, as investors became more concerned about the prospect of a trade war between the U.S. and China.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.26 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were steady on Tuesday following a record rally in the previous session, as investors remained cautious about the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and ahead of U.S. economic data set to be released later this week.
Spot gold gained 0.05% to $2,815.00 per ounce as of 1133 GMT after hitting a record high of $2,830.49 on Monday.
Crude prices fell on Tuesday as U.S. tariffs on China tok effect and Beijing retaliated with its own tariffs, escalating trade war fears. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump delayed a decision on imposing steep levies on Canada and Mexico for a month..
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.21, or 1.65%, at $71.95 per barrel at 1044 GMT, while Brent futures were down 73 cents, or 1%, to $75.23.