Posted at 04 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) (Dec) -5.6% forecast,4.9% previous
•Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Jan) -2.5%, -0.5% forecast, -1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 French Government Budget Balance (Dec) -172.5B previous
•08:00 Spanish Unemployment Change (Jan) 45.4K forecast, -25.3K previous
•09:40 Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 2.367% previous
•09:40 Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 2.535% previous
•10:00 UK 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.490% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Tuesday as markets were on edge with tit-for-tat tariffs that raised the spectre of a broader, damaging trade conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Monday, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement with the two countries. The market perceives Trump's tariff policies as inflationary.Trump's deal making seemed to underscore that everything was negotiable. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.0297, after recovering from the lowest since November 2022 at $1.0125 on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0329(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0379(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0279(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.9214 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Tuesday as concerns over a global trade war pushed investors toward safer assets. U.S. tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports took effect at midday in Asian trade, prompting Beijing to retaliate with 15% levies on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% on crude oil starting Feb. 10. The Bank of England meets on Thursday, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected. Investors increased bets on BoE rate cuts, pricing in 81 basis points of reductions by the end of the year, up from 75 bps. Sterling fell 0.27% to $1.2415. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2460(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2599(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2316(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2154(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Tuesday as greenback regained footing after sudden swings in U.S. tariff policy sent global markets on a wild ride. The rebound came after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to delay 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada by one month, sparking hopes they may be avoided altogether.At GMT 06:58, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.42% to $0.6199. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6243(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.633(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6173(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6093(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as Japan's safe-haven currency weakened due to the shift in the trade war narrative. U.S. President Donald Trump suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Monday, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement with the two countries, while levies on Chinese goods are due to start soon. Beijing responded with tariffs to take effect Feb. 10 on things such as American cars, farm equipment and energy shipments. The U.S. dollar gained 0.3% to 155.34 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.90 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.90(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.67 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month and announced plans for further talks with China.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.61% , South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.13%,Hang Seng was up by 2.73%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Tuesday, staying close to a record high from the previous session, as ongoing U.S. tariffs on China and inflation worries increased safe-haven demand, with attention also shifting to key jobs data set for release this week.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,820.94 per ounce, as of 0436 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,830.49 on Monday.
U.S. crude prices fell by nearly 2% on Tuesday as U.S. tariffs on China took effect, though President Donald Trump paused for a month a decision on steep levies on neighbours Canada and Mexico.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.32, or 1.8%, to trade at $71.84 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 87 cents, or 1.2%, to $75.09 by 0617 GMT.