Posted at 03 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.218%, 2.407% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.496%, 2.608% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.395%, 2.508% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 51.6, 52.2 previous
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 51.2, 50.1 forecast, 49.4 previous
•US Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan) 50.3, 47.8 forecast, 45.4 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jan) 55.1, 52.0 forecast, 52.1 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.9, 49.3 forecast, 49.2 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 54.9, 52.6 forecast, 52.5 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.220%, 4.195% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.155%, 4.140% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 3.9%, 2.9%, 2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•21:45 New Zealand Building Consents (MoM) (Dec) 5.3% previous
•23:50 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Jan) -0.5% forecast,-0.9% previous
•03:35 Japan 10-Years JGB Auction 1.140% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as the U.S. dollar edged lower, following President Donald Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Mexico for a month, easing some concerns over a trade war. The tariffs are expected to raise U.S. inflation, potentially supporting the dollar by keeping U.S. interest rates higher for longer. Economists warn that Trump's tariff plan could slow global growth and drive up prices for American consumers. Analysts suggest that Canada's and Mexico's economies could face recession once the tariffs take effect, while the eurozone economy could see further stagnation. On the economic front, U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the first time since October 2022, and spending on residential construction projects rebounded. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0277(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0328(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0219(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.093(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling recovered ground after initially falling on Monday as Trump hinted that the UK could be exempt from tariffs. On Sunday, Trump mentioned that while Britain was "out of line" on trade, he believed it might avoid tariffs.In contrast, he confirmed that tariffs on the European Union would proceed, though he did not specify when. On the economic front, British factories reported another tough month in January as output, new orders and employment all fell, PMI data showed.The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2380(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2502(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2250(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2111(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar regained much of its earlier losses against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as investors speculated that Canada might receive a reprieve from U.S. tariffs. On Saturday, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on goods from both Mexico and Canada. While the tariffs on Canada are set to take effect on Tuesday, Prime Minister Trudeau has warned of retaliatory 25% tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods. On the economic front, Canadian manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in January, as concerns over the potential U.S. tariffs reduced confidence in the economic outlook. The loonie was trading 0.5% lower at 1.4590 to the U.S. dollar, after earlier falling to its weakest level since April 2003 at 1.4793.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4492 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4624(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4351(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4268 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Monday as President Donald Trump's latest tariffs increased demand for safe-haven assets. The 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, effective Tuesday, along with a 10% levy on Chinese goods, raised fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and stoke inflation. Trump linked the tariffs to the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S., calling for action from Canada, China, and Mexico. With the full details of the tariff plan still unclear, uncertainty looms, and some analysts speculate that last-minute negotiations may delay or prevent the tariffs from being imposed.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.90 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.90(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.67 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks saw their biggest drop in over a month on Monday, driven by declines in automakers, as investors worried that U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs could spark a broader trade war.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.20 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes recovered some losses on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed new tariffs on Mexico.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.22% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.74% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.24% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit an all-time high on Monday, fueled by safe-haven inflows as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico heightened concerns about inflation and its potential impact on economic growth.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,818.99 per ounce by 01:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT), after hitting a record of $2,830.49 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $2,857.10.
Oil prices edged up in volatile trading on Monday as market remained unsettled as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, adding uncertainty to global trade and economic growth.
U.S. crude rose 0.87% to $73.16 a barrel while Brent rose to $75.96 per barrel, up 0.38% on the day.