Posted at 03 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 45.0, 45.3 forecast, 41.9 previous
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 45.0, 44.1 forecast, 42.5 previous
• S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.8, 53.2 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.6, 46.1 forecast, 45.1 previous
• GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.3, 48.2 forecast, 47.0 previous
• Italian CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.5%, 1.3% previous
• Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Italian HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.7%, 0.1% previous
• Italian HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.7%, 1.4% forecast
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -1.0%, 0.5% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.7%, 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.3%, 0.4% forecast
• EU CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 126.71, 127.07 previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan) 2.7%, 2.7% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jan) -0.7%, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Dec) 1.80% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.407% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.608% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.508% previous
•14:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.2 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.1 forecast, 49.4 previous
•15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan) 45.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jan) 52.1 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.3 forecast, 49.2 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 52.6 forecast, 52.5 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.195% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.140% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded from earlier slump on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs kicked off a trade war. Over the weekend, Trump imposed 25% duties on Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on China, claiming the measures were necessary to address the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S. Canada and Mexico quickly promised retaliatory actions, while China announced it would challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization. Trump’s move marked the beginning of what could lead to a destructive global trade war and drive up U.S. inflation. The euro dropped by as much as 2.3%, hitting $1.0125, its lowest level since November 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0277(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0328(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0219(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.093(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling recovered ground after initially falling on Monday as Trump hinted that the UK could be exempt from tariffs. On Sunday, Trump mentioned that while Britain was "out of line" on trade, he believed it might avoid tariffs.In contrast, he confirmed that tariffs on the European Union would proceed, though he did not specify when. On the economic front, British factories reported another tough month in January as output, new orders and employment all fell, PMI data showed.The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2380(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2462(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2270(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2144(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar recovered after plunging in Asian session as market digested trump tariff measures. Over the weekend, Trump followed through on his threats, imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on China. While Australia wasn’t directly impacted by these tariffs, its economy heavily relies on trade, especially with China, its key export market. On the data front, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a 0.1% decline in retail sales for December, following a 0.7% increase in November.At GMT 06:58, The Australian dollar was last trading up 1.10% to $0.6136. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6243(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6084(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Monday as President Donald Trump's latest tariffs fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. The 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on Canadian and Mexican imports from Tuesday, along with a 10% charge on Chinese goods, fuelled fears of a trade war that could slow global growth and feed inflation. Trump tied the tariffs to the flow of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the U.S., demanding action from Canada, China, and Mexico. While the White House has yet to release full details of the tariff plan, leaving uncertainty about their impact and duration, some analysts are speculating that last-minute negotiations could delay or prevent the tariffs from taking effect.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.90 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.90(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.67 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares retreated on Monday, joining a global selloff, amid fears that U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs could escalate into a broader trade war.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 1.33 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 1.54 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.45 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices recovered from early losses on Monday, staying near record highs due to safe-haven demand driven by growth and inflation concerns triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
Spot gold recovered to be down 0.1% at $2,799.09 an ounce by 1146 GMT while U.S. gold futures lost 0.1% to $2,832, still trading at a premium to spot rates.
Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, raising fears of supply disruption, though gains were capped by concern over what could be an economically damaging trade war.
Brent crude futures rose $1.28, or 1.7%, to $76.95 a barrel by 1232 GMT after touching a high of $77.34.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.89, or 2.6%, at $74.42 after touching their highest since Jan. 24 at $75.18.