Posted at 03 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Job Advertisements (MoM) (Jan) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Dec) 5.60%, 7.10% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Dec) 0.7%, 0.9% forecast, -3.4% previous
• Australia Private House Approvals (Dec) -3.0%, -1.7% previous
• Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.1%, -0.7% forecast, 0.8% previous
• Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) 1.0%, 0.5% previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.7, 48.8 forecast, 49.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:45 EU HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.8 forecast, 46.2 previous
•08:50 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 45.3 forecast, 41.9 previous
•08:55 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 44.1, 42.5 previous
•09:00 EU S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 53.2 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.1 forecast, 45.1 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.2 forecast, 47.0 previous
•10:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.3% previous
•10:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•10:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.4% previous
•10:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% previous
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Dec) 80.6 previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.5% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan) 127.07 previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan) 2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell sharply on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid growing concerns of a global trade war following President Trump’s new tariffs. Over the weekend, Trump imposed 25% duties on Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on China, claiming the measures were necessary to address the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the U.S. Canada and Mexico quickly promised retaliatory actions, while China announced it would challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization. Trump’s move marked the beginning of what could lead to a destructive global trade war and drive up U.S. inflation. The euro dropped by as much as 2.3%, hitting $1.0125, its lowest level since November 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0277(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0328(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0219(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.093(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling plunged on Monday as the dollar strengthened following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, raising fears of a wider trade war. Trump’s orders to impose 25% levies on imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, are vague but set to take effect on Tuesday, sending shockwaves through markets that had previously assumed Trump’s threats were bluffs. The dollar surged, as investors anticipated that countries hit by tariffs would devalue their currencies to mitigate the impact.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2380(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2462(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2270(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2144(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dropped to a five-year low on Monday, driven by concerns over a potential global trade war sparked by new U.S. tariffs. Over the weekend, Trump followed through on his threats, imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on China. While Australia wasn’t directly impacted by these tariffs, its economy heavily relies on trade, especially with China, its key export market. On the data front, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a 0.1% decline in retail sales for December, following a 0.7% increase in November.At GMT 06:58, The Australian dollar was last trading down 1.10% to $0.6136. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6243(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6084(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday after President Trump escalated tensions by launching a trade war with new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns about potential harm to economic growth and inflation. Trump tied the tariffs to the flow of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the U.S., demanding action from Canada, China, and Mexico. While the White House has yet to release full details of the tariff plan, leaving uncertainty about their impact and duration, some analysts are speculating that last-minute negotiations could delay or prevent the tariffs from taking effect.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.90 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.90(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.67 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets slumped on Monday and European and U.S. equity futures pointed sharply lower after President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China triggered fears of a broad trade war and a hit to global growth.
Jappan’s Nikkei was down 2.69% , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 2.52%,Hang Seng was down by 0.18%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged on Monday following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, fueling concerns about potential disruptions to crude supply from the U.S.'s two largest suppliers. However, the possibility of reduced fuel demand limited the extent of the gains.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $73.89 a barrel, up $1.36, or 1.88%, by 0656 GMT, after hitting its highest since Jan. 24 at $75.18 a barrel earlier in the session.
Gold prices dropped nearly 1% on Monday after reaching an all-time high in the previous session. The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, sparked by growing fears of a global trade war following President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,784.30 per ounce by 0534 GMT after prices hit a record peak at $2,817.23 on Friday. U.S. gold futures shed 0.7% to $2,815.20.