Posted at 01 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q4) 0.80%, 0.80% previous
•US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q4) 0.90%, 0.80% previous
•US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.5% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Chicago PMI (Jan) 39.5, 40.3 forecast, 36.9 previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.9% previous
•Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Nov) -22.72B, -14.50B previous
•Canada Budget Balance (Nov) -8.21B, -1.49B previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 479, 472 previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 582, 576 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro fell sharply against the dollar on Friday as markets prepared for U.S. President Donald Trump's impending tariff actions. The White House confirmed that Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on Chinese goods starting Saturday. Financial markets experienced significant volatility due to the fast-evolving, though still unclear, details of Trump's tariff plans, with currency trading especially impacted. On the economic front, German regional inflation came in lower than expected in December, and preliminary data pointed to a decline in inflation across five major German states in January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0433(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0488(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0352(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was poised for its fourth consecutive monthly decline on Friday, weighed down by mounting concerns over the UK economy, following January's bond market turbulence and weaker-than-expected economic data. Earlier this month, a global government bond selloff hit the UK hard, pushing long-term gilt yields to their highest levels in decades and putting pressure on finance minister Rachel Reeves. While yields have since pulled back and the pound has regained some stability, recent economic data shows a rapidly slowing economy, with rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, and weakening business activity. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2468(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2519(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2299(Jan 23rd low)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday amid volatile trading, as investors prepared for the imminent imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, including oil, with some hoping for an exemption. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that tariffs on oil and gas could begin around February 18, potentially lowering tariffs on some Canadian crude to 10%. Earlier, the White House confirmed that Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Saturday, as well as 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada acknowledged that trade policy uncertainty had contributed significantly to the loonie's decline in recent months, as it lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% to support the economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4559 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4602(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.430(Daily low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as markets braced for the implementation of President Donald Trump's tariff threats. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would impose hefty new tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China, and nothing could be done by the three countries to forestall them. Trump has been threatening the tariffs for weeks, saying they would be imposed on Feb. 1 and remain in place until the countries did more to stem the flow of both migrants and fentanyl over the U.S. border. Meanwhile, U.S. prices increased in December while consumer spending surged, suggesting that the Fed could delay cutting interest rates for some time this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.38 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a record high on Friday, driven by strong earnings from companies like Novartis and Hexagon, with technology stocks leading the charge, despite concerns over economic recovery.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.11 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday after the White House announced that President Donald Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on Chinese goods starting Saturday.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.75 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.50 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged past $2,800 on Friday, reaching a new all-time high as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid rising concerns over global economic uncertainties.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,801.29 per ounce by 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT), after hitting a record peak of $2,817.23 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $2,835, trading a premium to spot gold rates.
Oil prices rose in after-hours trading on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration plans to reduce proposed tariffs on Canadian oil from 25% to 10% and delay duties on oil and gas until February 18, easing initial concerns.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 73 cents, or 1%, to $73.48 a barrel after closing down 20 cents, or 0.3%, at $72.53.