Posted at 31 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.4%, 1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jan) 1.8%, 1.9% forecast, 1.8% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Dec) -3.80%, -4.70% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Dec) 1.0%, 3.7% previous
•Swiss Official Reserves Assets (Dec) 822.6B, 815.5B previous
•Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 4.0%, 0.5% forecast, 0.9% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Jan) 11K, 14K forecast, 10K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6.2%, 6.2% forecast, 6.1% previous
•German Unemployment (Jan) 2.880M, 2.869M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Jan) 2.993M, 2.807M previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%, 3.0% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.3%, 0.5% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.0%, 0.4% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.3%, 2.4% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.5%, 2.4% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.1%, 0.4% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.0%, 2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•13:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q4) 0.80% previous
•13:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
•13:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q4) 0.80% previous
•13:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•13:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Dec) 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•14:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Dec) 1.80% previous
•14:45 US Chicago PMI (Jan) 40.3 forecast, 36.9 previous
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (Nov) -1.49B previous
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Nov) -14.50B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:30 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Friday after data showed German regional inflation slowed more than expected in December. Preliminary figures also indicated a decline in inflation across five key German states in January. Economists had forecast Germany's harmonised national inflation rate to remain at 2.8% in January, unchanged from the previous month. In France, consumer prices rose slightly less than expected in January, with the harmonised rate at 1.8%, according to preliminary data from INSEE. These figures from Germany and France precede the euro zone's overall inflation data due on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0433(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0488(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0377(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0303(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was poised for its fourth consecutive monthly decline on Friday, weighed down by mounting concerns over the UK economy, following January's bond market turbulence and weaker-than-expected economic data. Earlier this month, a global government bond selloff hit the UK hard, pushing long-term gilt yields to their highest levels in decades and putting pressure on finance minister Rachel Reeves. While yields have since pulled back and the pound has regained some stability, recent economic data shows a rapidly slowing economy, with rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, and weakening business activity. The pound was last flat on the day against the dollar at $1.242 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2515(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2571(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2191(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained on back foot against greenback as concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada weighed on trade-sensitive currencies. On Thursday, President Trump stated that 25% tariffs would be imposed starting Saturday, although it was unclear if they would actually be implimented. Australia is heavily reliant on resource exports, particularly to China, and its liquid currency has become a favourite tool for investors to hedge global trade risks. At GMT 13:00, the pair was trading up 0.14% at 0.6217. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6271(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6335(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6147(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as yen weakened after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to maintain loose monetary policy to drive inflation toward the 2% target. The dollar found support from expectations of further BOJ rate hikes, as Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino indicated that the central bank would continue tightening if the economy and inflation align with forecasts. Meanwhile, Tokyo's core inflation reached 2.5%, marking the fastest pace in nearly a year. The yen had risen more than 0.7% for the week and was set to increase 1.6% for the month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.38 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a record high on Friday, driven by strong earnings from major technology and healthcare companies like Novartis, which helped offset concerns about a slower economic recovery.
At (GMT 13:08 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reached an all-time high on Friday, briefly surpassing the $2,800 mark, as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats.
Spot gold steadied at $2,795.52 per ounce by 11:18 GMT, after hitting a record peak of $2,800.99 earlier in the session. Prices rose more than 6% for the month and 1% for the week.
U.S. gold futures were little changed at $2,820.10.
Oil prices remained stable on Friday but were heading for a weekly decline as markets awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision on whether to proceed with his tariff threat against Mexico and Canada this weekend.
Brent crude futures for March, which expire on Friday, fell 4 cents to $76.83 a barrel by 1251 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was unchanged on the day at $72.73.