Posted at 31 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Housing Credit (Dec): 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Australia PPI (YoY) (Q4): 3.7%, 3.9% forecast, 3.9% previous
•Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q4): 0.8%, 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Dec): 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Dec): 8.1%, -10.2% previous
• Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (Dec): -2.5%, -3.7% forecast, -1.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Jan): 1.5%forecast, 1.3% previous
• 07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Jan): 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Jan): 1.9% forecast, 1.8% previous
• 07:45 French PPI (YoY) (Dec): -5.20% previous
• 07:45 French PPI (MoM) (Dec): 3.2% previous
• 08:00 Swiss Official Reserves Assets (Dec): 815.5B previous
• 08:00 Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): 0.5% forecast, 1.0% previous
• 08:55 German Unemployment Change (Jan): 14K forecast, 10K forecast
• 08:55 German Unemployment Rate (Jan): 6.2% forecast, 6.1% forecast
• 08:55 German Unemployment (Jan): 2.869M previous
• 08:55 EUR German Unemployment n.s.a. (Jan): 2.807M previous
•13:00 EU German CPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.1%, 0.5% previous
•13:00 EU German HICP (MoM) (Jan): -0.2%, 0.7% previous
•13:00 EU German HICP (YoY) (Jan): 2.8%, 2.8% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained some traction on Friday as markets assessed fresh tariff threats, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth, and the ECB’s interest rate cut. The U.S. economy grew by 2.3% in Q4, slightly below expectations, with weak business spending, while inflation rose as the PCE price index increased to 2.5%. The European Central Bank cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points, as expected, and signaled the possibility of further cuts amid ongoing concerns about economic weakness, overshadowing inflation worries. Meanwhile, President Trump repeated his threat to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, both key U.S. trade partners. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0433(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0488(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0377(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0303(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed against the dollar on Friday as weaker-than-expected US Q4 GDP and Dec pending home sales reports weighed on greenback. Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, though consumer spending increased at its fastest pace in nearly two years. US Dec pending home sales fell -5.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change and the biggest decline in 5 months. The Fed had earlier this week kept rates steady and Chair Jerome Powell said there would be no rush to cut them again, though he also implied there was still scope for easing with rates being meaningfully above neutral. Fed funds futures imply around 45 basis points worth of easing for the rest of this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2515(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2571(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2191(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD:The Australian dollar edged higher, but gains were limited as concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada weighed on trade-sensitive currencies.On Thursday, President Trump stated that 25% tariffs would be imposed starting Saturday, although it was unclear if they would actually be implimented. Australia is heavily reliant on resource exports, particularly to China, and its liquid currency has become a favourite tool for investors to hedge global trade risks. At GMT 07:22, the pair was trading down 0.17% at 0.6220. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6271(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6335(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6147(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank must maintain loose monetary policy to ensure underyling inflation gradually accelerates toward its 2% target. The currency has drawn support from expectations of further BOJ rate hikes this year, with Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino saying on Thursday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with the bank's forecasts.Data on Friday showed core inflation in Tokyo hit 2.5% to mark the fastest annual pace in nearly a year. the yen has climbed more than 0.7% for the week thus far and is set to gain 1.6% for the month .Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.38 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asia stocks were mixed on Friday as investors assessed strong earnings from tech giants, following a week that began with a market rout triggered by the release of a low-cost Chinese artificial intelligence model.
Jappan’s Nikkei was up 0.03% , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.77%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record high on Friday, on track for their best month since March 2024, as investors turned to the safe-haven metal amid rising U.S. tariff concerns.
Spot gold was steady at $2,793.84 per ounce, by 0535 GMT, gaining more than 6% this month. Earlier in the day, prices hit an all-time high of $2,799.71.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,824.40.
Oil prices rose on Friday as markets reacted to the potential threat of tariffs from U.S. President Trump on Mexico and Canada, the two largest crude exporters to the U.S., which could take effect.
Brent crude futures for March, which expires on Friday, gained 61 cents at $77.48 a barrel at 0430 GMT. The more-active April contract was at $76.37 a barrel, up 48 cents.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained 65 cents to $73.38.