Posted at 30 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
• French GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.7%, 1.2% previous
•Sweden Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 2.9%, -0.2% previous
•Sweden Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 5.6%, 1.4% previous
•Swiss Trade Balance (Dec) 3.494B, 4.500B forecast, 6.111B previous
•German Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.9% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.0%, 1.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Sweden Business Confidence (Jan) 101.10, 97.20 previous
•Sweden Consumer Confidence (Jan) 99.1, 96.7 previous
•Sweden Manufacturing Confidence (Jan) 94.8, 96.5 previous
•Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.0%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, -0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) 2.9%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q4) -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK BoE Consumer Credit (Dec) 1.045B, 0.950B forecast, 0.905B previous
•UK M3 Money Supply (Dec) 3,081.6B, 3,078.0B previous
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Mortgage Approvals (Dec) 66.53K, 65.00K forecast, 66.06K previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jan) 95.2, 94.1 forecast, 93.7 previous
•EU Business Climate (Jan) -0.94, -0.91 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Jan) -14.2, -14.2 previous, -14.5 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jan) 20.2, 21.2 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Jan) 8.7, 7.5 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Jan) 6.6, 6.0 forecast, 5.7 previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Jan) -12.9, -13.8 forecast, -14.1 previous
•EU Unemployment Rate (Dec) 6.3%, 6.3% forecast, 6.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Jan) 2.75% forecast, 3.00% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 2.90%, 3.15% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.40% previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K forecast, 1,899K previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.50% forecast, 2.20% previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.7% forecast, 3.1% previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.5% forecast, 1.9% previous
•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q4) 3.3% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 224K forecast, 223K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 213.50K previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q4) 1.5% previous
•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q4) 3.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Nov) 5.25% previous
•15:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.0%, 2.2% previous
•15:00 US USD Pending Home Sales Index (Dec) 79.0 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -317B, -223B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.265% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.250% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•15:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as investors awaited a likely interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is expected to reduce borrowing costs, with further easing possible as concerns over weak economic growth outweigh persistent inflation. After cutting rates four times last year, the ECB is anticipated to make three to four additional cuts in 2025, as inflation is largely under control and economic conditions call for relief. With the euro zone economy stagnating in the last quarter, driven by an industrial recession and weak consumption, the need for a rate cut is widely acknowledged, with no ECB policymakers opposing it publicly. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as traders assessed key monetary policy decisions from major central banks and the UK’s economic outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates as expected and stated that it is in no rush to cut rates again.The European Central Bank is widely expected to reduce rates at 1315 GMT on Thursday, in a reflection of the slowing euro zone economy and cooling inflationary pressures. On the data-front, the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP reading is scheduled to be released before US markets open on Thursday, while December's personal consumption expenditures price index data is expected on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as expectations for a February rate cut increased after softer-than-expected CPI data. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in Q4, with annual inflation slowing to 2.4%. Core inflation fell to 3.2%, below the anticipated 3.3%, and was 2.7% in December. The market is now pricing in a 95% probability of a quarter-point reduction in the 4.35% cash rate at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting on February 18.At GMT 12:49, the pair was trading down 0.05% at 0.6229. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6275(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6352(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6147(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Thursday as Japan’s shift in monetary policy outlook boosted the yen. Traders expect further tightening in response to economic conditions and inflation trends. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.5% from 0.25% last week, citing expectations that wages will keep rising and inflation will stay stable around its 2% target. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stated on Thursday that the central bank will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices align with forecasts. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and euro, was up 0.02% at 107.96. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.38 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark index reached a record high on Thursday, driven by gains in real estate and technology stocks, as investors anticipated a likely interest rate cut in the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy decision.
At (GMT 12:57 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.60percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Thursday as investors grew concerned about potential import tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, while also awaiting a key inflation report to assess the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,777.55 per ounce, as of 1227 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.9% to $2,794.
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive day on Thursday after U.S. crude stockpiles increased more than anticipated. However, focus remained on the tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the two largest crude suppliers to the U.S.
Brent crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $76.15 a barrel at 1007 GMT. U.S. crude futures were down 46 cents, also 0.6%, to $72.16. U.S. crude futures had settled at their lowest price this year on Wednesday.