Posted at 30 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Jan) 45.8%, 50.3% previous
•Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 3.6%, -4.3% previous
•Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2%, 1.5% forecast, -1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 Sweden Business Confidence (Jan) 97.20 previous
•08:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (Jan) 96.7 previous
•08:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence (Jan) 96.5 previous
•08:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.6% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.9% forecast, 2.8% forecast
•08:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jan) -0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•09:00 Italian GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.6% forecast, 0.4% forecast
•09:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1% forecast, 0.0% forecast
•09:00 German GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
•09:00 German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jan) 94.1, 93.7 previous
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Jan) -0.91 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Jan) -14.2, -14.5 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jan) 21.0 previous
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Jan) 7.6 previous
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Jan) 6.0, 5.9 previous
•10:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.0%, 0.9% previous
•10:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Jan) -13.8, -14.1 previous
•10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Dec) 6.3%, 6.3% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 2.90%forecast,3.15% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Jan) 2.75%forecast, .00% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.40% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Thursday as the dollar held firm after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but gave few indications about further rate cuts this year. Fed officials unanimously decided to maintain the overnight rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, putting the central bank in a holding pattern while awaiting more inflation and job data, as well as clarity on the impact of President Trump’s policies. Investors’ attention then shifted to the ECB's policy decision later in the day. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday and may leave the door open for further easing amid concerns over weak economic growth, which outweigh persistent inflation fears. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and provided little guidance on when further rate cuts might occur. After months of largely stagnant inflation data, the Fed removed language from its policy statement suggesting inflation had made progress toward its 2% target, instead noting that price increases remain elevated. The Fed's decision to hold rates was widely expected following its rate cuts in 2024, which lowered the benchmark rate by a full percentage point. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD:The Australian dollar drifted lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as expectations for a February rate cut grew following softer-than-expected CPI data. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in Q4, with annual inflation slowing to 2.4%. Core inflation dropped to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%, and was 2.7% in December. The market is pricing in a 95% chance of a quarter-point reduction in the 4.35% cash rate at the RBA's next meeting on Feb. 18.At GMT 07:22, the pair was trading down 0.17% at 0.6220. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6275(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6352(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6202(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6147(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Thursday as yen made broad gains as Japan looks on track to keep raising interest rates as others cut. The BOJ raised interest rates to 0.5% from 0.25% last week on the view that wages will continue rising and keep inflation stable around its 2% target. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday that Japan's central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with the bank's forecasts. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was up 0.02% to 107.94. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.38 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets rose on Thursday in thin trading, as much of the region was on holiday for the Lunar New Year.
Jappan’s Nikkei was up 0.03% , S&P/ASX 200 was up by 0.55%.
Commodities Recap
Gold traded within a narrow range on Thursday as investors focused on U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans and a key inflation report for further clues on monetary policy.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,761.59 per ounce, as of 0622 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.1% to $2,773.30. The premium over spot rates was at nearly $12.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as markets awaited U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the top oil suppliers to the U.S., and a key meeting of OPEC+ producers for further direction.
Brent crude futures were down 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $76.51 a barrel by 0411 GMT. U.S. crude futures were little changed at 2 cents up, or 0.03%, to $72.64. U.S. crude futures had settled at their lowest price this year on Wednesday.