Posted at 30 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Goods Trade Balance (Dec) -122.11B, -105.60B forecast, -103.50B previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec) 0.2%, 0.4% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Dec) -0.5%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 3.00%, 3.00% forecast, 3.25% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.3%, 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories 3.463M, 2.200M forecast, -1.017M previous
•US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.333M, -1.125M previous
•US Crude Oil Imports 0.532M, 0.184M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.326M, -0.148M previous
•US Distillate Fuel Production 0.028M, -0.473M previous
•US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -4.994M, -2.750M forecast, -3.070M previous
•US Gasoline Production -0.044M, -0.043M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but gave scant clues about further reductions in borrowing costs this year.Fed officials made a unanimous decision to keep the overnight interest rate in the current 4.25%-4.50% range, putting the central bank in a holding pattern as they await further inflation and jobs data and clarity on the impact of President Donald Trump's policies.During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell it is too soon to say what Trump's policies will do and the central bank's 2% inflation target will remain in place. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.09% to 108.02. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling inched lower against the dollar on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and gave little insight into when further reductions in borrowing costs may take place.After several months in which inflation data has largely moved sideways, the U.S. central bank dropped from its latest policy statement language saying that inflation has made progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation goal, noting only that the pace of price increases remains elevated. The Fed's rate decision on Wednesday was widely anticipated following its rate cuts in 2024, which reduced the benchmark rate by a full percentage point. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut interest rates to support the economy ahead of anticipated U.S. trade tariffs, which widened the gap between Canadian and U.S. bond yields. The BoC lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, downgraded growth forecasts, and warned that a potential tariff war with the United States could severely damage the Canadian economy. Investors are pricing in a 41% chance of another rate cut by the BoC in March and expect roughly 40 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2025. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.4420 per U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.4393 to 1.4471.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4400(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4375(SMA9), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4330 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but gave scant clues about further reductions in borrowing costs this year. The decision to hold the policy rate steady was widely anticipated following three consecutive rate cuts in 2024 that reduced the Fed's benchmark rate by a full percentage point. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it is too soon to say what President Donald Trump's policies will do and the central bank will take its time assessing what the new government policy regime means. After the release of the statement, short-term interest rate futures showed that investors expect the central bank to hold off on cutting rates again until June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.38 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.73(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.28(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at a record high on Wednesday, driven by gains in technology stocks after strong results from chip equipment maker ASML. Investors also shifted their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.32 percent.
U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday, but off their lows of the day, with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady as expected and Fed Chair Jerome Powell offering soothing comments for investors.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.31 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.47 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.41 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as the dollar and bond yields rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as widely expected, providing little clarity on the timing of future rate cuts.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,753.86 per ounce by 02:56 p.m. ET (1956 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $2,779.80, widening the premium over spot gold rates.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with the U.S. benchmark settling at its lowest level of the year so far, after domestic crude stockpiles in the world’s top petroleum producer and consumer rose more than expected last week.
Brent crude futures settled down 91 cents, or 1.2%, at $76.58 a barrel. U.S. crude futures fell $1.15, or 1.6%, to $72.62, their lowest settlement price so far this year.