Posted at 29 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8%previous
•Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4) 3.5% ,3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
•Sweden Interest Rate Decision 2.25%, 2.25% forecast, 2.50% previous
•Italian Business Confidence (Jan) 86.8 ,85.5 forecast, 85.9 previous
•Italian Consumer Confidence (Jan) 98.2, 96.0 forecast, 96.3 previous
•Swiss ZEW Expectations (Jan) 17.7 ,-20.0 previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (Dec) 16,726.4B, 16,681.9B previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec) 3.5%, 3.9% forecast, 4.3% previous
•EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Dec) 1.5%, 1.0% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Dec) 1.1%, 1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
• Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) 7.79B, 6.03B previous
• Belgian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2% ,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Dec) -105.60B -103.50B previous
• 13:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec) 0.5% previous
• 13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% -0.2% previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 2.200M forecast -1.017M previous
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -1.125M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.184M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.148M
•14:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 3.00%, forecast, 3.25% previous
•19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecasts, 4.50% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
••14:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•14:45 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
•14:45 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•19:00 USD FOMC Statements
•19:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s January meeting. The ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%, continuing its easing cycle due to a cloudy economic outlook and persistent services inflation. Traders anticipate up to four rate cuts this year, with some policymakers hinting rates may fall towards 2%. However, some hawkish members, like Isabel Schnabel, have cautioned that the pace of cuts should be carefully considered. The euro last fetched at $1.0435, down 0.54%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling inched lower against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. interest rate decision, while also keeping an eye on President Trump's trade policies and new tariff threats. The Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of the year concludes later today, with expectations to keep rates unchanged after a 100 basis point cut from September to December. Investors are also looking for any comments on Trump's call to lower rates, though his inflationary policies may lead the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell on Wednesday after a weaker-than-expected inflation report fueled expectations for a near-term rate cut by the RBA. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in Q4, with annual inflation slowing to 2.4%. Core inflation dropped to 3.2%, below the forecast of 3.3%, and stood at 2.7% in December. Market expectations for a rate cut on February 18 surged, with swaps indicating a 75% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in the 4.35% cash rate, and futures pricing it at 90%, up from 80%.At GMT 13:24, the pair was trading down 0.58% at 0.6215. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6288(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6214(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6157 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded within a narrow range on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at its meeting next week, but attention will be on how policymakers respond to President Trump’s actions, including his push for lower borrowing costs. Trump's moves to restrict immigration and raise import taxes have complicated the Fed's task, with him reiterating his call for rate cuts during a speech to global business leaders on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.20 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.78(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.90 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks reached an all-time high, driven by strong gains in retail sectors and easing market concerns after a previous global sell-off.
At (GMT 13:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.37percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained steady on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day, while also weighing the potential impact of President Trump's trade policies.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $2,759.49 per ounce by 1127 GMT while U.S. gold futures were flat at $2,768.70.
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday, pressured by a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and reduced concerns over Libyan supply, while U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also drew attention.
Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.48%, at $77.12 a barrel by 1246 GMT. U.S. crude futures lost 33 cents, or 0.45%, to $73.44.