Posted at 29 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia CPI (YoY) (Q4) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Australia CPI Index Number (Q4) 139.40, 139.10 previous
•Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q4) 3.2%, 3.3% forecast, 3.6% previous
•Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.50%, 2.50% forecast, 2.30% previous
•Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Q4) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast, 3.7% previous
•Australia Weighted mean CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Japan Household Confidence (Jan) 35.2, 36.6 forecast, 36.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
•08:00 Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
•08:30 SEK Interest Rate Decision 2.25% forecast, 2.50% previous
•09:00 Italian Business Confidence (Jan) 85.5 forecast, 85.8 previous
•09:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Jan) 96.0 forecast, 96.3 previous
•09:00 EUM3 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec) 3.9% forecast, 3.8% previous
•09:00 EUM3 Money Supply (Dec) 16,681.9B previous
•09:00 EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Dec) 1.0% previous
•09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Dec) 1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
•10:00 Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) 5.91B previous
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Dec) 80.6 previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited European Central Bank’s January meeting. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%, continuing its easing cycle due to an uncertain economic outlook and persistent services inflation. Traders expect almost four rate cuts from the ECB this year and some policymakers have explicitly agreed, pointing to rates falling towards 2%.That would put rates within estimates of the so-called neutral rate, which neither restricts nor accommodates growth.But some hawks sound more cautious on the pace, with top hawk Isabel Schnabel recently warning that the bank needs to have a deep think on how far and quickly to cut. The euro fetched $1.0435, down 0.54%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. interest rate decision, with attention also on President Donald Trump's trade policies and new tariff threats. The Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting of the year ends later today, with the central bank widely expected to keep rates unchanged following a 100 basis point reduction from September to December. Investors will also be watching for any comments on President Trump’s call to lower interest rates, although his policies are seen as inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates for a longer period. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dipped on Wednesday after a weaker-than-expected domestic inflation report raised expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by RBA. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in Q4, with annual inflation slowing to 2.4%. Core inflation dropped to 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%, and was 2.7% in December. Markets adjusted expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut on Feb. 18, with swaps indicating a 75% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in the 4.35% cash rate. Futures now price the cut at around 90%, up from the previous 80%. At GMT 05:44, the pair was trading down 0.60% at 0.6254. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6288(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6224(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6157 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in narrow range on Wednesday as market participants awaited the U.S. interest rate verdict. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady later in the day, but the key focus will be how they navigate President Donald Trump's early actions, including his demand for lower borrowing costs. Trump's moves to restrict immigration and raise import taxes have already complicated the Fed's task, and he reiterated his call for rate cuts during a speech to global business leaders on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.20 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.78(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.90 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares firmed on Wednesday as investor angst ebbed over the emergence of a low-cost Chinese AI model that some see rivaling U.S. dominance of the industry.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 1.02% , and China A50 was up by 0.07%, Hang Seng was up by 0.14%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as market participants awaited the U.S. interest rate verdict, while the spotlight was also on President Donald Trump's trade policies amid fresh tariff threats.
Spot gold held its ground at $2,761.93 per ounce, as of 0526 GMT. U.S. gold futures added 0.1% to $2,769.80.
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday, reversing some of the previous session's gains, as rising U.S. crude stockpiles and reduced concerns over Libyan supply disruptions weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $77.31 a barrel by 0548 GMT, while U.S. crude futures declined 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $73.62 a barrel.