Posted at 29 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) -2.2%, 0.3% forecast, -2.0% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Dec) -2.4%, -1.3% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, -0.1% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 4.9%, 4.5% previous
•US House Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 4.2%, 4.5% previous
•US House Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US House Price Index (Nov) 433.4, 432.3 previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Nov) 0.4%, 0.4% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov) 4.3%, 4.2% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, -0.2% previous
•US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 104.1, 105.7 forecast, 109.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 05:00 Japan Household Confidence (Jan) 36.6 forecast, 36.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Tuesday as U.S. dollar strengthened amid fresh tariff threats from the Trump administration.President Donald Trump intensified tariff threats, including plans to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel to boost U.S. production. Trump has also flagged possible 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1, and has threatened to hit the EU and China with tariffs as well. Looking ahead investors awaited European Central Bank’s January meeting.The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as inflation approaches the 2% target and economic indicators show slowing growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: The pound dropped against the dollar on Tuesday as U.S. tariff threats resurfaced, shifting focus back to trade concerns following Monday's tech selloff and flight to safe-haven assets. The Financial Times reported that Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for Treasury secretary, is advocating for universal tariffs on U.S. imports, starting at 2.5% and increasing monthly. This strengthened the U.S. dollar across various currencies, with sterling falling 0.5% to $1.2448 after recent gains. Despite a 2% increase since Trump’s inauguration, the pound remains on track for a fourth consecutive month of losses against the dollar after reaching a 14-month low on January 13..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday ahead of an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada and as the threat of U.S. trade tariffs drew renewed focus, leading to broad-based gains for the American currency. The Bank of Canada is expected on Wednesday to offer an analysis on the impact of potential U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy and to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%.That would likely widen the gap between Canadian and U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its key rate steady in the 4.25% to 4.50% range on Wednesday.The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, rose 0.1% to $73.25 a barrel but was holding near a multi-week low hit on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4355 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4575(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4255(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4160(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar advanced against the yen on Tuesday amid fresh tariff threats from the Trump administration.President Donald Trump said on Monday he planned to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals and steel in an effort to persuade the producers to make them in the United States. Trump's latest tariff threats came a day after the U.S. and Colombia pulled back from the brink of a trade war when the White House said the South American nation had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying deported migrants.The dollar advanced 0.6% to 155.52 against the Japanese yen , on course to snap three straight sessions of losses. Immediate resistance can be seen t 156.42 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.78(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.51 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a record high on Tuesday, driven by gains in retail stocks, as selling pressures eased following a global market sell-off sparked by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.70 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.12 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with Nvidia and other AI-related tech stocks rebounding from sharp losses, as investors took advantage of the lower prices..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.31 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.92 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday after a drop in the previous session, which was sparked by a tech-led market sell-off. The rebound was driven by growing uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, which kept investor demand for the safe-haven asset strong.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,762.02 per ounce by 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT). Gold dropped over 1% to mark its steepest drop since Dec. 18 in the previous session spurred by DeepSeek's low-cost, low-power AI model.U.S. gold futures settled 1.1% higher at $2,767.50.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, recovering from multi-week lows, after the White House confirmed U.S. President Donald Trump's intention to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports this week.
Brent crude oil futures settled up 41 cents, or 0.53%, at $77.49 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 60 cents, or 0.82%, at $73.77.