Posted at 27 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Business Expectations (Jan) 84.2, 84.2 forecast, 84.4 previous
•German Current Assessment (Jan) 86.1, 85.4 forecast, 85.1 previous
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) 85.1, 84.9 forecast, 84.7 previous
•France Jobseekers Total (Dec) 2,957.0K, 2,935.0K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.408% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.633% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.532% previous
•14:00 Belgium NBB Business Climate (Jan) -10.3, forecast -13.8 previous
•15:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) 5.9% previous
•15:00 US New Home Sales (Dec) 669K, forecast 664K previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jan) 3.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:35 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose against the dollar on Monday after a survey showed German business sentiment unexpectedly improved in January. German business morale unexpectedly improved thanks to a more positive assessment of the current economic situation, a survey showed on Monday, although analysts said many companies remain pessimistic with uncertainty rife ahead of elections. The Ifo institute said its business climate index increased to 85.1 in January from 84.7 in the previous month. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 84.7.The current conditions index rose to 86.1 in January from 85.1 in December, while the expectations index fell slightly to 84.2 from 84.4. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0644(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0369(Jan 23rd low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rallied against the dollar on Monday as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of the year for clues about future interest rate moves. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate decisions are due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Analysts noted that a Fed hold and a 25 basis point cut from the ECB are already priced in, but traders will be watching closely for any signals about the future rate outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2516(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained on Monday as the dollar slipped, with investors looking to the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of the year for insights on future interest rate moves. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets largely expecting the central bank to keep its lending rate unchanged. Attention will also be on Friday's U.S. personal consumption expenditures report for December, a key indicator for assessing the inflation outlook..At GMT 14:02, the pair was trading down 0.33% at 0.6293. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6333(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6507 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6272(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6180 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Monday as rush for safe-haven assets increased as tech stocks plunged, with investors weighing the implications of a Chinese startup launching a free open-source artificial intelligence model.. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank rate decisions are due Wednesday and Thursday .Fed policymakers are largely expected to keep rates steady at the end of their Jan. 28-29 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This would mark the first pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began last September. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is set to cut rates again by another 25 basis points on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.42 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.78(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.51 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European slumped on Monday as investors weighed the implications of Chinese startup DeepSeek's launch of a free open-source artificial intelligence model to rival OpenAI's ChatGPT.
At (GMT 13:13 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.72 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.48 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pared earlier losses on Monday as the U.S. dollar edged down, while investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting this year for clues about the future path of interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,755.59 per ounce as of 1210 GMT, after falling as much as 0.7% earlier in the session. Prices had risen to near-record high levels on Friday.U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $2,771.40 per ounce.
Oil prices retreated on Monday after the U.S. backed away from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, easing concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. However, U.S. President Donald Trump's tough stance continues to keep markets on edge.
Brent crude futures fell 60 cents, or 0.8%, to $77.90 a barrel by 1300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 57 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.09.