Posted at 27 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Chinese Composite PMI (Jan) 50.1, forecast 52.1, 52.2 previous
• Chinese Industrial Profit YTD (Dec) -3.3% -4.7% previous
• Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.1, 50.1 forecast, 50.1 previous
• Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.2, 52.2 previous
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Nov) -1.4%, -1.5% forecast, previous 2.8%
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Nov) -1.6%, -2.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Japan Leading Index (Nov) 107.5, 107.0 forecast, 109.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•German Business Expectations (Jan) 84.0, forecast 84.4, 84.4 previous
•German Current Assessment (Jan) 85.4, 85.1 previous
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) 84.9 forecast 84.7, 84.7 previous
•Spanish Consumer Confidence (Dec) 80.6 previous
•France Jobseekers Total (Dec) 2,935.0K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Monday ahead of this week’s European Central Bank policy meeting. The ECB meets on Thursday for the first time since Donald Trump returned to office, with U.S. tariff threats still hanging over the eurozone's sluggish economy, potentially complicating the outlook. Traders expect further rate cuts, but the key question is whether the ECB will signal its future direction. Markets have already priced in the move, and the ECB removed language in December that had previously pledged to keep rates restrictive. The euro rose 0.36% to $1.0453, on track for a 1.8% weekly gain, its strongest since November 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0517(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0533(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0386(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0226(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Monday as the dollar firmed as traders assessed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, ahead of a week where the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady. Last week, the dollar had its weakest performance since November 2023 as tariff concerns eased, but those fears resurfaced as the U.S. and Colombia stepped back from the edge of a trade war. Fed policymakers are largely expected to keep rates steady in their Jan. 28-29 meeting, marking the first pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in September. Data since the Fed's December meeting has kept intact the core view among Fed officials that inflation will continue to move steadily, if slowly, towards 2%, with a low unemployment rate and continued hiring and economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2506(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2648(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2358(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2163(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as stronger greenback and downbeat China Manufacturing PMI data weighed on Australia dollar.China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in January, marking its weakest performance since August, according to an official survey. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in January from 50.1 in December, below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction and missing the expected 50.1.At GMT 06:22, the pair was trading down 0.44% at 0.6286. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6333(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6507 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6272(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6180 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as greenback rose as traders assessed the impact of Trump's tariff plans. Investor attention this week is on central banks and their response to Trump’s call for interest rate cuts.The Fed is expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday, but investors will look for signs of a possible March rate cut if inflation moves closer to the 2% target. Data on Friday showed that U.S. business activity slowed to a nine-month low in January amid rising price pressures. Separately, U.S. existing home sales increased to a 10-month high in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.48(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 153.81 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares slumped on Monday as investors weighed the implications of Chinese startup DeepSeek's launch of a free, open-source artificial intelligence model to rival OpenAI's ChatGPT.
Jappan’s Nikkei was down 0.83% , and South Korea's KOSPI was flat by 0.00%, Hang Seng was up by 0.54%.
Commodities Recap
Gold dipped on Monday pressured by a firmer dollar, while investors focussed on the Federal Reserve's first meeting of 2025 for more guidance on the U.S. interest rate path.
Spot gold dropped 0.6% to $2,755.80 per ounce, as of 0509 GMT, after trading just below record-high levels on Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $2,760.70.
Oil prices dipped on Monday after U.S. President Trump urged OPEC to lower prices, following his announcement of extensive measures aimed at boosting U.S. oil and gas production in his first week in office.
Brent crude futures dropped 53 cents, or 0.68%, to $77.97 a barrel by 0430 GMT after settling up 21 cents on Friday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.16 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.67%.