Posted at 24 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI 45.3, 42.4 forecast, 41.9 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI 48.3, 47.7 forecast, 47.5 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI 48.9, 49.3 forecast, 49.3 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI 50.1, 48.2 forecast, 48.0 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI 44.1, 42.7 forecast, 42.5 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI 52.5, 51.1 forecast, 51.2 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 46.1, 45.6 forecast, 45.1 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI 50.2, 49.7 forecast, 49.6 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI 51.4, 51.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 50.9, 50.0 forecast, 50.4 previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.2, 46.9 forecast, 47.0 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 51.2, 50.8 forecast, 51.1 previous
•UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan) -24, -11 forecast, -15 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.8% previous
•13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.8 forecast, 49.4 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI 55.4 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI 56.4 forecast, 56.8 previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) 4.8% previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (Dec) 4.19M forecast, 4.15M previous
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.3% forecast, 2.8% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.3% forecast, 3.0% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan) 70.2 forecast, 73.3 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) 73.2 forecast, 74.0 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Jan) 77.9 forecast, 75.1 previous
•16:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Jan) -4 previous
•16:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) -5 previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 478 previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 580 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the dollar on Friday as the greenback weakened amid uncertainty over U.S. President Trump's tariff plans and his calls for lower interest rates. On the data front, Eurozone business showed a modest return to growth in January, with stable services activity and a slight easing in the long-standing downturn in manufacturing. HCOB's preliminary composite Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.2 in January from December's 49.6, just above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The euro rose 0.36% to $1.0453, set for a 1.8% weekly gain, its best since November 2023 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0465(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0409(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0338(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday as the dollar weakened, as Trump administrations lack of clear of tariff policies weighed on greenback. In an interview published late Thursday, Trump stated he believed he could reach a trade deal with China and preferred not to use tariffs against the country.Uncertainty over Trump's tariff policies has dominated currency markets this week, leading investors to broadly sell off the dollar. His remarks came just ahead of the Fed's first policy meeting under his administration, where broad expectations suggest rates will remain unchanged. Traders see almost no chance of a Fed rate cut next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2432(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2557(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2307(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2239(Jan 21st low)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as President Trump’s more relaxed stance on tariffs boosted market risk appetite. Trump expressed confidence in securing a deal with China, emphasizing his preference to avoid using tariffs. With China being Australia’s largest export market, investors often see the Australian dollar as a liquid indicator of trade risks.At GMT 13:22, the pair was trading up 0.36% at 0.6307, the highest level since Dec 18th . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6330(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.646 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6241(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6209 (Jan 21sth low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but reversed course after the Bank of Japan hiked rates on Friday and revised up its inflation forecasts, but offered few clues on the timing and pace of future rate hikes. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates on Friday to their highest since the 2008 global financial crisis and revised up its inflation forecasts, underscoring its confidence that rising wages will keep inflation stable around its 2% target.At its two-day meeting concluding on Friday, the BOJ raised its short-term policy rate from 0.25% to 0.5% - a level Japan has not seen in 17 years. It was made in an 8-1 vote with board member Toyoaki Nakamura dissenting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.65 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.92(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.45 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stock steadied on Friday, extending the positive momentum from Wall Street, as investors analyzed additional corporate earnings and the latest economic data..
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Friday, staying close to the record highs reached in October, driven by U.S. President Trump's calls for lower interest rates and uncertainty over his trade policies.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,776.97 per ounce by 1210 GMT and was up 2.8% for the week. Prices are at their highest since Oct. 31, when they hit a record high of $2,790.15.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 0.7% to $2,783.80 per ounce.
Oil prices ticked up on Friday but were still set for a weekly decline after U.S. President Trump unveiled plans to boost U.S. production and urged OPEC to lower crude prices.
Brent crude futures gained 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.54 a barrel by 1147 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $74.84.