Posted at 24 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jan) 52.7, 50.9 previous
•New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Dec) -1.4%, -3.1% previous
• Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50%, 0.50% forecast, 0.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Spanish PPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.9% previous
•08:15 France Manufacturing PMI 42.4 forecast, 41.9 previous
•08:15 HCOB France Composite PMI 47.7 forecast, 47.5 previous
•08:15 HCOB France Services PMI 49.3 forecast, 49.3 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Composite PMI 48.2 forecast, 48.0 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI 42.7 forecast, 42.5 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Services PMI 51.1 forecast, 51.2 previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 45.6 forecast, 45.1 previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI 49.7 forecast, 49.6 previous
•09:00 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI 51.4 forecast, 51.6 previous
•09:25 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.9 forecast, 47.0 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 50.0 forecast, 50.4 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 50.8 forecast, 51.1 previous
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Dec) 80.6 previous
•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan) -11, -15 previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) -4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained against the dollar on Friday as the dollar weakened amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans and his calls for lower interest rates. Trump’s remarks, his first to global leaders during his four-day-old presidency, suggested that his second term would move away from free-market norms both in the U.S. and globally. While he made strong statements about tariffs, he provided no specifics, leaving markets on edge. The euro rose 0.36% to $1.0453, set for a 1.8% weekly gain, its best since November 2023 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0465(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0409(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0338(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday as the dollar weakened, boosted by expectations of a softer U.S. stance on China tariffs and potential rate cuts following President Donald Trump’s comments. On Thursday, Trump expressed a desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, claiming he has a better understanding of monetary policy than the officials responsible for setting it. His remarks came just ahead of the Fed's first policy meeting under his administration, where broad expectations suggest rates will remain unchanged. Traders see almost no chance of a Fed rate cut next week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2432(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2557(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2307(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2239(Jan 21st low)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as President Trump’s softer stance on tariffs boosted market risk appetite. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China, stressing his preference to avoid using tariffs in negotiations. Given that China is Australia’s largest export market, investors often view the Australian dollar as a liquid proxy for trade risks.At GMT 1:42, the pair was trading up 0.54% at 0.6317, the highest level since Dec 18th . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6330(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.646 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6241(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6209 (Jan 21sth low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped sharply lower on Friday as the yen rose after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiked rates on Friday and revised up its inflation forecasts. BOJ raised rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, in a move that had been well telegraphed by policymakers prior to the outcome.Earlier on Friday, data showed Japan's core consumer prices rose 3.0% in December from a year earlier to mark the fastest annual pace in 16 months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.65 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.92(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.75 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares firmed e on Friday buoyed by the prospect of a softer stance on tariffs on China and lower U.S. rates following comments from President Donald Trump
Jappan’s Nikkei was down 0.10% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.85%, Hang Seng was up by 1.69%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were little changed on Friday but were set for a weekly decline after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a broad plan to increase U.S. production and urged OPEC to lower crude prices..
Brent crude futures were down 9 cents at $78.20 a barrel by 0445 GMT on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dipped 9 cents to $74.53.
Gold prices reached near three-month highs on Friday and were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, driven by uncertainty over U.S. President Trump’s tariff plans and his calls for lower interest rates, which weighed on the dollar.
Spot gold jumped 0.7% to $2,773.57 per ounce, as of 0505 GMT, and has gained more than 2% so far this week. Earlier in the day, prices rose to $2,777.10, their highest since Oct. 31, when they hit a record high of $2,790.15.