Posted at 23 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•New Zealand External Migration & Visitors (Nov) 5.90% forecast, 6.30% previous
•New Zealand Permanent/Long-Term Migration (Nov) 2,070 forecast ,1,530 previous
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -66.1B forecast , 259.1B previous
•Japan Imports (YoY) (Dec) 1.8% forecast ,2.6% previous
•Japan Trade Balance (Dec) 130.9B forecast ,-55.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 French Business Survey (Jan) 96 forecast,97 previous
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Dec) 80.6previous
•10:00 Belgium Consumer Confidence (Jan) -9 previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) -35 forecast, -40previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded flat against dollar on Thursday after a volatile period following Trump’s return to the White House and his tariff plans. In addition to threats on Chinese imports, Trump suggested Mexico and Canada could face 25% tariffs by Feb. 1 and promised duties on European imports, without providing details. However, investors were relieved that the tariffs weren’t imposed immediately, leaving the dollar weaker. Investors will focus on Friday Purchasing Managers’ Index data for January on Friday and World economic forum annual meeting. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six others, languished near a two-week low of 108.26.The euro was little changed at $1.0408 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0440(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0374(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0307(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded in narrow range on Thursday as market struggled for direction in the absence of concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% tariff on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without elaborating further.The Federal Reserve is meeting next week against a backdrop of continued economic growth and declining inflation, but faces uncertainties from Trump's proposed policies that analysts see as inflationary.The U.S. central bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its next policy meeting on Jan. 28-29. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2353(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2158(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2105(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was little changed against greenback on Thursday as investors waited for more clarity from U.S. President Donald Trump on his tariff plans.This week, Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China starting Feb. 1, and hinted at future duties on European imports without details.Australia's Q4 consumer price report is due next week, with analysts hoping slowing core inflation will lead to a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Feb. 18.At GMT 07:27, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.16% to $0.6263 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6288(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6297 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6223(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6171 (Jan 16th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Thursday as the yen weakened ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) rate decision. Markets are increasingly expecting the BOJ to raise its short-term policy rate by 0.25% to 0.5%, a level last seen during the Global Financial Crisis. However, the BOJ is likely to approach any tightening cautiously, signaling gradual 'normalization' of policy. On the data front, Japanese exports rose 2.8% YoY in December, marking a third consecutive monthly increase, while imports grew 1.8%, below the expected 2.6% rise. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.25 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.92(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.75 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asia shares rose on Thursday, helped by a jump in their Chinese counterparts on Beijing's latest measures to shore up its crumbling stock market, while elsewhere, investors continued to have their eyes on U.S. President Donald Trump's policy plans.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.98% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 1.24%, China A50 was up by 0.64%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Thursday from a near three-month peak investors awaited further direction from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration regarding trade policies.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $2,751.99 per ounce by 0552 GMT. Prices rose to $2,763.43 on Wednesday, their highest since Oct. 31 when they hit a record high of $2,790.15.
Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over the impact of U.S. President Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies on global economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.74 a barrel at 0427 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $75.21.