Posted at 21 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Nov) 5.6% , 5.5% forecast,5.2% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 5.6%, 5.6% forecast,5.2% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Dec) 0.7K ,10.3K forecast, -25.1K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Nov) 35K, 35K forecast, 173K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.4% ,4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
•German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan) -90.4 ,-93.1 forecast,-93.1 previous
•German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 10.3, 15.2 forecast, 15.7 previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 18.0, 16.9 forecast, 17.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.9% forecast, 2.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.6% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.7% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.8% forecast, 1.9% previous
•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous
•13:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.5% forecast, 2.7% previous
•14:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -1.4% previous
•14:00 US Milk Auctions 4,029.0 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.225% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.180% previous
•18:00 US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.070% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Released
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday as the greenback rebounded as Donald Trump's first day back in the U.S. presidency brought mixed messaging on tariffs. Trump did not immediately impose tariffs as previously promised but said he was thinking about imposing 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 over illegal immigrants and fentanyl crossing into the United States. The U.S. policy framework under Trump could impact the strength of the dollar and Treasury yields, as well as raise inflation, which could mean fewer interest rate cuts. The euro was last down 0.62% at $1.0353, after rallying 1.4% on Monday amid the relief about a delay in tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0426(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0487(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0351(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0280(Daily low).
GBP/USD: The pound dropped on Tuesday as the dollar rebounded as U.S. President Donald Trump stopped short of implementing tariffs. Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on U.S. imports on his first day back in the White House but told reporters he was considering import tariffs of around 25% on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1, challenging suggestions his trade policy may be more gradual. The dollar fell sharply on Monday after Trump's first day included no specific news on tariffs, lifting sterling and other trade-exposed currencies.On the data front, British pay growth remained strong in the three months to November, but other labor market indicators showed signs of weakening.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2382(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2492(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2251(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2110(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rebounded after Trump hinted at potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The dollar had dropped sharply on Monday due to Trump’s first day lacking specific tariff plans, with officials suggesting new taxes would be imposed cautiously. Australia's data schedule is light this week, with the key quarterly consumer price report due on Jan. 29.At GMT 13:03, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.78% to $0.6224. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6293(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6350 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6233 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday, rebounding sharply after a steep drop, as Trump’s first day back in office sent mixed signals on tariffs. The dollar has risen about 5% since Trump’s Nov. 5 election win, driven by a strong U.S. economy and anticipation of tariffs that could impact America’s trading partners. Many investors had expected swift action on tariffs, which caused significant market moves following a memo indicating no immediate action. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.07 percent at 155.77 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.28(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.32 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.83(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Tuesday, as gains in financials and healthcare stocks offset broader losses driven by uncertainty over Trump’s proposed tariff measures after his inauguration.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to a two-month high on Tuesday , boosted by safe haven buying amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies.
Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $2,719.52 per ounce by 1059 GMT, reaching its highest level since Nov. 6 and nearing the all-time high of $2,790.15 set in October.
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday as investors weighed Trump’s delayed tariff plans and his push to boost U.S. oil and gas production.
Brent crude futures were down $1.42, or 1.77%, to $78.73 per barrel at 1116 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by $1.97, or 2.53%, at $75.91