Posted at 21 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Nov) 5.6% , 5.5% forecast,5.2% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 5.6%, 5.6% forecast,5.2% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Dec) 0.7K ,10.3K forecast, -25.1K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Nov) 35K, 35K forecast, 173K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.4% ,4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan) -93.1 forecast, -93.1previous
• 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 15.2 forecast, 15.7 previous
• 10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Dec) 80.6 previous
• 10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 16.9 forecast, 17.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Released
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday as the dollar recovered some overnight losses following Trump’s suggestion of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, potentially starting on Feb. 1. Trump also mentioned the possibility of universal tariffs, but stated the U.S. wasn’t ready for that yet. The dollar had dropped sharply on Monday after Trump’s first day lacked specific tariff plans, and officials indicated new taxes would be imposed cautiously, easing concerns for trade-sensitive currencies. The euro eased back to $1.0378 , from an early top of $1.0434. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0426(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0487(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0351(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0280(Daily low).
GBP/USD: The pound dropped on Tuesday as the dollar rebounded after Trump announced plans for trade tariffs on neighboring countries within hours of taking office. Global markets reacted with caution to Trump's presidency, especially regarding his trade and tariff plans. While investors initially hoped for a delay in tariffs after his inauguration speech, Trump soon stated he was considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1. Trump's policies are seen as inflationary, which could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates higher for longer, weighing on gold as it yields no interest. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2382(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2492(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2251(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2110(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rebounded after Trump hinted at potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The dollar had dropped sharply on Monday due to Trump’s first day lacking specific tariff plans, with officials suggesting new taxes would be imposed cautiously. Australia's data schedule is light this week, with the key quarterly consumer price report due on Jan. 29.At GMT 07:53, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.58% to $0.6237. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6293(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6350 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6233 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Tuesday as the yen strengthened, driven by expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates this week. The BOJ is expected to increase rates on Friday, raising short-term borrowing costs to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. A weak yen has been a challenge for Japanese policymakers, driving up import costs, fueling inflation, and hurting consumption. Markets currently estimate a 78% likelihood of a 25 basis point increase, reflecting growing expectations of monetary tightening. At GMT 06:16 the pair was trading down 0.11 percent at 155.42. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.28(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.32 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.83(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose on Monday as investors welcomed the possibility of a delay in Trump's tariff plans after a brief mention of the topic in his inauguration speech.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.30% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.08%, Hang Seng was up by 0.93%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to a ten-week high on Tuesday as investors turned to the safe-haven metal amid uncertainty over his tariff plans.
U.S. gold futures were 0.2% lower at $2,744.40, narrowing the premium over spot rates, after Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday as was expected.
Oil prices were steady in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors assessed Trump’s delayed tariff plans and his push to boost U.S. oil and gas production.
Brent crude futures edged lower by 1 cent, or 0.01%, to $80.14 per barrel by 0405 GMT.The most actively traded West Texas Intermediate crude March contract dipped 60 cents, or 0.78%, to $76.79 a barrel.