Posted at 17 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• China House Prices (YoY) (Dec) -5.3%, -5.7% previous
• China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec) 3.2%, 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
• China GDP (YoY) (Q4) 5.4%, 5.0% forecast, 4.6% previous
• China GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 1.6%, 1.6% forecast, 1.3% previous
• China Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q4) 5.0%, 4.8% previous
• China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 6.2%, 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous
• China Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Dec) 5.8%, 5.8% previous
• China Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 3.7%, 3.5% forecast, 3.0% previous
• China Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Dec) 3.48%, 3.45% previous
• China Unemployment Rate (Dec) 5.1%, 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 EU Current Account (Nov) 28.0B forecast, 25.8B previous
•09:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Nov) 32.0B previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Dec) -0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Dec) 2.1% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a. (Dec) 127.08 forecast, 126.62 previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Dec) 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
Looking Events And Other Release (GMT)
•10:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Friday as strong U.S. economic data and uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs weighed on sentiment ahead of Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in December following upward revisions for November, according to the Commerce Department. Jobless claims increased more than anticipated last week but stayed within levels indicative of a healthy labor market. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Business Index surged unexpectedly to 44.3 in January, far exceeding forecasts of -5. U.S. dollar index a measure of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies was up 0.05% at 109.13. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0327(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0276(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0213(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened on Friday as the dollar strengthened amid uncertainty over potential tariffs and Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration as U.S. president. The dollar's recent surge to multi-year highs has been driven by fading expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts and optimism around pro-growth and inflationary policies under the new administration.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, has jumped nearly 10% since late September, reaching a two-year high. Much of the rally followed Trump’s November election victory, as investors adjusted portfolios to account for anticipated trade and tariff policies, which are expected to support the dollar in the near term while pressuring other currencies and economies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2356(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2134(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2073(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Friday as Australian dollar was pressured by broadly stronger dollar despite upbeat China Data.China's economy expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in Q4, surpassing analysts' forecasts, according to official data released on Friday.China's retail sales rose 3.7% year-on-year in December, exceeding the 3.5% forecast and up from 3% in November.However, China's unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December, a three-month high, up from 5% in November.At GMT 05:54, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.18% to $0.6200. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6230(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6297 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6179 (Jan 15th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6145 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as markets awaited Donald Trump's return to the White House. Meanwhile, the yen was on track for its strongest weekly performance in over a month, with expectations rising that the Bank of Japan may raise rates next week. Remarks from BOJ officials and Japanese data indicating persistent price pressure and strong wage growth have bolstered market confidence, with traders pricing in an 80% chance of a rate hike. The yen has gained more than 1% against the dollar this week, recovering from last week's decline, and was slightly weaker at 155.62 per dollar on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.43 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.78(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.54(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.22 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell on Friday, mirroring overnight losses on Wall Street, as bond yields dropped and markets increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.41% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.16%, Hang Seng was up by 0.22%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained near a five-week high on Friday, on track for a third consecutive week of gains, as U.S. inflation data earlier this week fueled expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Spot gold was flat at $2,711.63 per ounce, as of 0629 GMT. Bullion has gained about 1% so far this week, having hit its highest since Dec. 12 on Thursday.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, poised for a fourth straight weekly gain, as new U.S. sanctions on Russian energy trade tightened supply, driving up spot prices and shipping costs.
Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.73 per barrel by 0443 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 62 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.3 a barrel.