Posted at 17 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Export Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 1.8%, 0.9% previous
• US Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.2%, 2.1% forecast, 1.4% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 217K, 210K forecast, 203K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.75K, 213.50K previous
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 44.3, -5.0 forecast, -10.9 previous
• US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jan) 46.3, 33.8 previous
• US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jan) 39.00, 22.20 previous
• US Philly Fed Employment (Jan) 11.9, 4.8 previous
• US Philly Fed New Orders (Jan) 42.9, -3.6 previous
• US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jan) 31.90, 26.60 previous
• US Retail Control (MoM) (Dec) 0.7%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
• US Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 3.92%, 4.12% previous
• US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan) 47, 45 forecast, 46 previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Natural Gas Storage -258B, -260B forecast, -40B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•01:30 China House Prices (YoY) (Dec) -5.7% previous
•02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec) 3.3%, 3.3% previous
•02:00 China GDP (YoY) (Q4) 5.0% forecast, 4.6% previous
•02:00 China GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 1.6% forecast, 0.9% previous
•02:00 China GDP YTD (YoY) (Q4) 4.8% previous
•02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous
•02:00 China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Dec) 5.8% previous
•02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 3.5% forecast, 3.0% previous
02:00 ChinaChinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Dec) 3.45% previous
•02:00 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Dec) 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
Looking Events And Other Release (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as dollar weakened as traders digest a slew of mixed economic data to gauge the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year.U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after upward revisions the previous month, data from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed.Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at levels showing a healthy labor market.The Philadelphia Fed Business Index, which jumped to 44.3 in January, was the lone surprise as the forecast was for a reading of minus 5. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0327(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0276(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0213(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Thursday as investors focused on monetary policy divergence after last week's selloff in gilts and the pound. Investors took heart from data this week that showed British inflation slowed unexpectedly last month and core U.S. inflation was softer than expected, reviving bets of rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve.Further on Thursday, numbers showed Britain's economic output returned to growth in November but expanded by less than expected.Markets increased their bets on future rate cuts from the BoE, pricing 63 basis points in 2025.Strong U.S. data, concerns over inflationary policies under incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and UK fiscal challenges pressured markets last week and drove UK borrowing costs to their highest since 2008. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2356(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2134(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2073(Lower BB)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, and bond yields declined as investors prepared for potential U.S. trade tariffs. The Bank of Canada (BoC) also announced plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program in the coming months. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, set to take office on Monday, has threatened a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. BoC Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle stated that the central bank expects to conclude QT and resume normal asset purchases in the first half of this year. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.4392 per U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.4323 to 1.44.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4411(Jan 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4460(23.6fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4363(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4279 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell to a one-month low on Thursday, pressured by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and heightened expectations of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike. Comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Ryozo Himino signaled that a rate hike will be a key topic at next week's policy meeting, with markets pricing in a 79% probability of a 50-basis-point increase. Meanwhile, Japan’s annual wholesale inflation remained steady at 3.8% in December, driven by persistently high food costs, according to data released on Thursday. The greenback was down 0.81% against the yen at 155.2, its lowest since Dec. 19. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.56 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.13(Jan 15th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.78(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.68(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose nearly 1% on Thursday, with luxury stocks boosted by Richemont's , opens new tab upbeat earnings update and semiconductor firms making gains after TSMC , opens new tab reported record quarterly profit.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.09 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.14 percent.
U.S. stocks edged lower on Thursday, easing from the previous session's rally, as investors assessed the latest corporate earnings and economic data to gauge the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts..
Dow Jones closed down by 0.16 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.21 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.89 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed to a one-month high on Thursday, supported by declining Treasury yields after soft U.S. core inflation data earlier in the week bolstered expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance.
Spot gold gained 0.8% to $2,716.91 per ounce as of 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), hitting its highest since Dec. 12. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,790.15 on Oct. 31, 2024.U.S. gold futures settled 1.2% higher at $2,750.90.
Oil prices dipped on Thursday as Yemen's Houthi militia signaled a halt to Red Sea ship attacks, while strong U.S. retail sales data added to market uncertainty.
Brent crude futures settled down 74 cents, or 0.9%, at $81.29 per barrel, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest price since July 26.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.36, or 1.7%, to $78.68 a barrel, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday to their highest price since July 19.