Posted at 16 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Nov): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
•U.K. GDP (MoM) (Nov): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•U.K. GDP (YoY) (Nov): 1.0%, 1.3% forecast, 1.1% previous
•U.K. Index of Services: 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.4%, 0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
•U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): -1.8%, -1.0% forecast, -1.1% previous
•U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.3%, -0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Nov): -1.2%, -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•U.K. Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Nov): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•U.K. Trade Balance (Nov): -19.31B, -18.00B forecast, -19.33B previous
•U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov): -7.72B, -7.65B previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.2% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
•German HICP (YoY) (Dec): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•German HICP (MoM) (Dec): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, -0.7% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
• Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Dec) 1.1%, 1.2% previous
• Italian HICP (YoY) (Dec) 1.4%, 1.4% forecast,1.5% previous
• Italian HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%,0.1%forecast,-0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K forecast, 1,867K previous
•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 0.8% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 1.3% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec) -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 210K forecast, 201K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 213.00K previous
•13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) -5.2 forecast, -16.4 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jan) 30.7 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jan) 18.80 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Jan) 6.6 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Jan) -4.3 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jan) 31.20 previous
•13:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Dec) 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) 3.80% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Nov) 163.6K previous
•15:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan) 45 forecast, 46 previous
•15:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov) 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•15:00 US Natural Gas Storage -260B forecast, -40B previous
Looking Events And Other Release (GMT)
•16:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•17:30 Canada BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday as dollar recovered as focus shifted to Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration next week and possible inflationary impact of his policies. Investors are worried that the potential for tariffs after Donald Trump re-enters the White House next week could stoke inflation and limit the Fed's ability to lower rates to a greater extent. Central bank officials noted U.S. inflation continues to ease after Wednesday's data, but foresee uncertainty due to anticipated Trump administration policies. The U.S. dollar index a measure of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies was up 0.19% at 109.276 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0327(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0276(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0213(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Thursday after data showed slower-than-expected British economic growth in November, potentially giving the Bank of England room to lower interest rates. GDP rose 0.1% in November after a 0.1% decline in October, missing analysts' forecast of 0.2%. The Office for National Statistics said the services sector grew a little in November with wholesaling, pubs and restaurants and IT companies all doing well but manufacturers and oil and gas firms had a weaker month.Following the release, the pound slipped 0.31% to $1.2207, down from $1.222 prior to the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2356(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2134(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2073(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Thursday as stronger US dollar offset upbeat Australian employment data. Australian employment surged beyond expectations in December, despite a slight uptick in the unemployment rate as many more people went looking for work.The jobless rate rose to 4.0% from 3.9%, as expected, while the participation rate edged up to a record high of 67.1% from 67.0%.Annual job growth surged to an impressive 3.1%, more than twice the historical average, while the labor force expanded at a similar pace.At GMT 13:20, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.49% to $0.6196. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6230(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6297 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6179 (Jan 15th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6145 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday as yen firmed on rising bets on a rate hike in Japan. . The Bank of Japan will debate whether to raise interest rates next week, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, signalling its intention to take borrowing costs higher barring a Trump-driven market shock.The remarks, which echo those made by BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino on Tuesday, pushed up the yen as markets continued to price in the chance of a rate hike at the bank's next policy meeting on Jan. 23-24. On the data front, Japan’s annual wholesale inflation held steady at 3.8% in December on stubbornly high food costs, data showed on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.43 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.78(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.5450%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.22 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Thursday, as heavyweight luxury stocks got a boost following Richemont's upbeat earnings update and semiconductor firms gained after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) reported a record quarterly profit.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed near one-month highs hit earlier on Thursday after a softer-than-expected core U.S. inflation print increased chances of two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with the first likely in June.
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $2,704.18 per ounce as of 1255 GMT after hitting its highest level since Dec. 12 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,731.30.
Oil prices fell back slightly on Thursday, a day after settling at multi-month highs on the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia and a larger-than-forecast fall in U.S. crude stocks.
Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.66 per barrel by 1042 GMT, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest since July 26 last year.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $79.69 a barrel, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday to their highest since July 19.