Posted at 16 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia MI Inflation Expectations: 4.0%, 4.2% previous
•Australia Employment Change (Dec): 56.3K, 14.5K forecast, 28.2K previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Dec): -23.7K, 49.5K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Dec): 67.1%, 67.0% forecast, 67.0% previous
•Australia Reserve Assets Total (Dec): 102.1B, 98.3B previous
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Dec): 4.0%, 4.0%forecast, 3.9% previous
•U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Nov): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
•U.K. GDP (MoM) (Nov): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•U.K. GDP (YoY) (Nov): 1.0%, 1.3% forecast, 1.1% previous
•U.K. Index of Services: 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.4%, 0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
•U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): -1.8%, -1.0% forecast, -1.1% previous
•U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.3%, -0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Nov): -1.2%, -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•U.K. Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Nov): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•U.K. Trade Balance (Nov): -19.31B, -18.00B forecast, -19.33B previous
•U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov): -7.72B, -7.65B previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.2% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
•German HICP (YoY) (Dec): 2.8%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•German HICP (MoM) (Dec): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, -0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Dec): 1.2% previous
•09:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Dec): 1.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•09:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Dec): 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Nov): 4.500B forecast, 5.153B previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Nov): -0.66B previous
•09:00 Trade Balance (Nov): 11.8B forecast, 6.8B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as traders remained cautious amid strong U.S. economic data and the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs, alongside Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration as president. Core U.S. inflation for December came in at 0.2% month-on-month, matching forecasts and easing from November's 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the 3.2% figure was slightly below the anticipated 3.3%. The data increased expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Interest rate futures traders, as of Wednesday, were pricing in nearly even odds that the Fed would implement two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first expected in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0327(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0276(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0213(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Thursday after data showed that the British economy grew slower than anticipated in November, potentially allowing the Bank of England more leeway to lower interest rates this year. According to the Office for National Statistics, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1% in November, following a 0.1% decline in October. This growth fell short of the 0.2% increase projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. In response to the data, the pound fell 0.31% on the day, trading at $1.2207, down from around $1.222 just before the release. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2356(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2134(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2073(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Thursday as traders digested Australian employment data. Australian employment surged beyond expectations in December, despite a slight uptick in the unemployment rate as many more people went looking for work.The jobless rate rose to 4.0% from 3.9%, as expected, while the participation rate edged up to a record high of 67.1% from 67.0%.Annual job growth surged to an impressive 3.1%, more than twice the historical average, while the labor force expanded at a similar pace.At GMT 06:52, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.32% to $0.6206. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6230(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6297 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6179 (Jan 15th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6145 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday as yen firmed on rising bets on a rate hike in Japan. . The Bank of Japan will debate whether to raise interest rates next week, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, signalling its intention to take borrowing costs higher barring a Trump-driven market shock.The remarks, which echo those made by BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino on Tuesday, pushed up the yen as markets continued to price in the chance of a rate hike at the bank's next policy meeting on Jan. 23-24. The yen traded as firm as 155.21 per dollar, its strongest since Dec. 19. It has gained about 1.2% in the last two sessions.Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.43 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.78(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.5450%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.22 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares tracked Wall Street higher on Thursday and the dollar was soft as easing core U.S. inflation kept potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on the table, while the yen rose to a one-month high on rate hike bets.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.32% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.23%, Hang Seng was up by 1.08%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were steady on Thursday after hitting over one-month highs, as softer U.S. core inflation data lifted expectations that more rate cuts were still on the table, although news of a ceasefire accord between Israel and Hamas capped further gains.
Spot gold held its ground at $2,693.93 per ounce, as of 0603 GMT, after hitting its highest since Dec. 12 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,723.70.
Brent crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $82.28 per barrel by 0446 GMT, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest since July 26 last year.
Oil prices rose for the second consecutive session on Thursday, driven by concerns over supply disruptions due to U.S. sanctions on Russia, a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil stocks, and a positive outlook for global demand.